I have a theory to explain delays

Discussion in 'General Discussions' started by Splashy, Oct 19, 2016.

  1. Splashy

    Splashy Active Member

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    As DJI have said, the volume of orders they have received is way beyond what they expected.

    It would appear that DJI are entering a new market of the consumer drone. If you look at the demos and videos they all say how easy it is to fly and the forward cameras make it avoid crashes by stopping before it hits obstacles. Anyone who does not know drones might easily think that this drone is uncrashable.

    Videos have shown that if you fly close to the ground (or water) then you will be asked whether you want to land. If you were to swipe away that annoying message then you would land the drone - potentially in water.

    Add DJI Care and you have a potential recipe for massive amounts of returns from people who have it as their first drone and fly it sideways into trees, land it in water, land it on someone, fly it away without having GPS lock and then wonder why return to home did not work, fly it behind something which blocks the signal etc etc.

    If the flight handling is not spot on then a change in direction coupled with a cross wind might flip it over. I have crashed a few drones by having it coming towards me, going near a tree and then moving it in the wrong direction.

    If this is a consumer drone then it will be on the Christmas list of many kids (big and small) and I would certainly want to make the handling as steady and predictable as I possibly could. If there was ANY doubts about ANY aspect of its flying characteristics then I would delay until these were sorted. It would be a nightmare for DJI to send out tens of thousands of units to first time drone flyers and to have YouTube filled with 4K videos of their crashes into trees, buildings, kids etc.

    The huge number of orders may have surprised them and it may be down to a different type of consumer ordering them as against the enthusiastic video photographer and the more experienced drone flyers.
     
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  2. The Editor

    The Editor Well-Known Member

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    I love all these threads giving reasons for non delivery of the Mavic.
    They range from conspiracy theories and trademark issues, to firmware, GPS and who knows, landing on the Moon problems.

    The fact of the matter is DJI are just total crap at product launches. They always have been and still are.
    They have never....let me say that again NEVER delivered a new product on the date they say it will start shipping.
    NAZA, A2, H3-2D, H3-3D, The Inspire, the list goes on. None of them went to market when they said they would.

    Why do people think the Mavic was going to be any different? :p
    In reality, we MAY see first or second week in November for some stock dribbling through with more in the latter part of next month.
    All these units will be used to fill pre-orders with dealers have no surplus stock this side of Christmas.
     
  3. combustication

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    What is the OP trying to say? If people are foolish they will crash it so DJI needs idiot proof the drone? The price tag is $1000, if you're going to be foolish flying a $1000 camera then DJI can't do anything to fix that with current technology at this price point. This theory receives a resounding NO from me.
     
  4. DefaultIT

    DefaultIT Well-Known Member

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    Well for starters their warranty explicitly excludes water damage...so inadvertent landings shouldn't be a service liability for them (and even if it were, they could fairly easily modify that behavior via mandatory update). Demand does seem to have caught them off guard but that does not present a particularly good reason for withholding batches of shippable units if they had them; on the contrary the rarity and exclusiveness of a few early birds would probably get people foaming at the mouth even more.

    It's much easier for me to believe that delays are the result of entirely new tooling and assembly. It doesn't appear this thing shares a single bit of hardware with anything else they make, and Karma likely pushed their release schedule past the point of comfort, to the point where any little snafu threatens a close-shaved deadline.

    What amazes me is how, within days, so many people go from "I can't believe all the tech they shoved into this thing!!" to "I can't believe they haven't shipped them already!!" Where's the middle step where some tardiness is taken in stride with the assumption that breaking the proverbial mold might actually be... difficult?
     
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  5. msinger

    msinger Well-Known Member
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    The P4 shipped on time. Some people who ordered from Apple actually received it a day or two before the launch date.
     
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  6. Raptorman

    Raptorman Well-Known Member

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    It will ship when it ships! I know we all get anxious awaiting the big brown truck when a highly anticipate toy goes on the market, but put yourself in DJI's place for a moment. They've been working on this new drone for a while and no doubt worried about the Karma and how that might effect sales and since it's unveiling they must have been surprised at the huge demand they received for it. You don't go from nothing to building millions of anything without some issues -- remember this is a new product.

    Still, DJI could do a better job of managing the announce/ship schedule and be more honest upfront that there could be delays at the start. But, lets say they start shipping at the end of October and we start to receive them in the first week of November -- by the end of November they should be pushing large numbers out the door and catching up on demand. My guess is by mid December most everyone that had a hardon for one will have it by then and it will then be a market dominated by folks seeing the Mavic Pro, asking about it, then buying one.

    As E. said, this happens almost all the time with DJI releases and when the next new thing from DJI comes out we can expect a similar issue.


    Brian
     
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  7. The Editor

    The Editor Well-Known Member

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    Clearly a mistake and whoever was responsible for that within DJI was sacked immediately :p
     
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  8. Mako79

    Mako79 Well-Known Member

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    Just an observation.. P4's were shipped in time because demands weren't that high. I don't know what the demands for the P4 was, but there was lots of people with Phantom 3's questioning if it was worth the upgrade just to have Obstacle avoidance and subject tracking. The mavics demand on the other hand is quite the opposite. It seems people are flogging off their 2 month old P4's and even their mums to get a hold of one. It seems every person who has ever owned a DJI product wants a mavic, and any person entering the multirotor world wants one.
    You factor in China's 1% wealthiest population and you will see why the fuss..
     
  9. msinger

    msinger Well-Known Member
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    So, DJI couldn't even ship one unit because the demand was high? That doesn't sound right.
     
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  10. AgentBB007

    AgentBB007 Member

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    Exactly what I'm thinking msinger!! Their demand was SO CRAZY HIGH it made them spaz out so they can't even ship 1 drone? There's something else going on maybe the boat is late, or they said mid October on purpose knowing it would be early November to beat GoPro to the market or a bunch of other crazy reasons that DJI doesn't want to share with us.
     
  11. Mako79

    Mako79 Well-Known Member

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    Due to the business relationship, I think priority has all gone to Apple and the first batch (which was everyone's pre-orders) will trickle into their stores first. In a clusterfk, DJI's 'first come first serve' would have placed them in rock and hard place. It would be a repeat of the P4's launch where it was better to walk into a store then to pre-order. It will be interesting to see what happens on NOV 2.
     
  12. AgentBB007

    AgentBB007 Member

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    If they all went to Apple then why isn't Apple selling them?
     
  13. Mako79

    Mako79 Well-Known Member

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  14. AgentBB007

    AgentBB007 Member

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    It says November ship date, doesn't look like evidence that Apple got all of the Mavic's. I think Apple is in the same boat as everyone else.
     
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  15. Mako79

    Mako79 Well-Known Member

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    This is why I said it would be interesting to see what happens on NOV 2. Will Apple be treated like the rest of the farm??
     
    #15 Mako79, Oct 19, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2016
  16. Dougie

    Dougie Active Member

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    They probably ran out of batteries as everyone ordered like 5 per drone! :p
     
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  17. E92Vancouver

    E92Vancouver Well-Known Member

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    And there will be glitches, numerous firmware upgrades and that lousy DJI service we have all come to love.
     
  18. E92Vancouver

    E92Vancouver Well-Known Member

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    Ah no! The reason for the delay is that the Mavic is not ready for prime time. But GoPro upstaged DJI with their new drone. This forced DJI to launch the Mavic way before it was ready to make sure that GoPro did not steal their sales. It is cut throat out there.

    GoPro Karma is a very compelling choice. You get a GoPro camera and a handheld gimbal. Fawk DJI.
     
    #18 E92Vancouver, Oct 20, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2016
  19. MavicMo

    MavicMo Member

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    I think its a simple issue of DJI wanting to release the Mavic so that consumers may be swayed away from the Karma (I'm not going to discuss functionality/capability, just the simple "First to Market" aspect)

    I think DJI moved their schedule up and pushed their "team" to make a new date. They couldn't make it happen so the delay. IMO, more or less what the OP states, I think its better to have a more solid product released than one that may have issues.

    All I have to do is look at the Typhoon H and how that was supposed to be released in Oct, but was moved to shortly after the Phantom 4 was available. A large number of early Typhoon H's had issue. I know cause I got an early one that had to be completely replaced because it so bad. The second had to be sent in for GPS board replacement. Both were early production units.

    BTW, the P4 was available on time. And as stated, I could have picked one up from my local Apple Store a week before it was supposed to be sold. I do agree with the post that demand for the P4 was probably not as high. Myself included, did not feel there was enough significant differences for me to sell my P3 for a P4, or just add the P4 to my "hanger". I did eventually pick up a P4...
     
  20. Ed Windham

    Ed Windham Well-Known Member

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    I was out and about this morning and stopped by our local Apple store and showed the Manager the Mavic. He was impressed and looked at all the features. I flew in front of the store that is about a half mile from the runway at McCarran International her in Las Vegas. I was able to self authorize in Geo. Note that I did not fly more than 20m high. I would not do that as airplanes were landing while i was flying in front of the Apple Store. It was fun showing someone that has never seen one let alone held one. I offer to let him fly but he declined. I am hoping that the other Apple stores managers will be interested.
     

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