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Wind speed forecast accuracy

izometric

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Long story short. I requested authorization to fly on 18th of April which got approved.

I checked the wind forecast on Accuweather and it says that winds will reach speeds of up to 70kmph in that day.

I find it a little strange that wind speed can be predicted so far in advance.

Does anyone know if they can actually predict wind speed almost 2-1/2 weeks in advance or this is actually based on hystorical data?
 
Does anyone know if they can actually predict wind speed almost 2-1/2 weeks in advance or this is actually based on hystorical data?
Just wait and see.
Their models make the best estimate they can with the available knowledge.
But the further into the future, the greater the uncertainty in the predictions.
A forecast is just a forecast and there are many reasons that even on the same day, the predicted conditions could be significantly different from what the actual weather does.
 
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Forecasts are only forecasts, and they may not apply at all to your particular location. (Mountaintop, valley) for example. You as the pilot in real time will have to be sensitive to the drone’s environment and respond accordingly. There are no magic bullets for successful piloting.
 
I use the UAV Forecast and AirdataUAV apps and they sometimes report very different Wind speeds for the same nearby location within the hour. one within the safe flying range and the other as much as 10 mph higher in the unsafe range. Very frustrating
 
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I use the UAV Forecast and AirdataUAV apps and they sometimes report very different Wind speeds for the same nearby location within the hour. one within the safe flying range and the other as much as 10 mph higher in the unsafe range. Very frustrating
I find UAV Forecast to show much higher than actual wind speeds. At home I rely on my personal weather station.
 
The weather app called Ventusky has reliable forecasts out to about two weeks, including windspeeds at 3, 10, 100 meters AGL (all the way up to the edge of space). I’m a long time user and a big fan.
 
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I check the wind forecast starting the day prior to flights. I use UAV Forcast the day of and during the flight(s). So far it works for me.
 

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The weather app called Ventusky has reliable forecasts out to about two weeks, including windspeeds at 3, 10, 100 meters AGL (all the way up to the edge of space). I’m a long time user and a big fan.

I do like Ventusky for free home desktop planning (they have a low cost app too), but agree that a couple of days is pretty ok to trust, increasingly more likely to be out as time goes on.

I wonder how many might have ever checked forecasts and actual happenings, and worked out a rough accuracy ?
Not too many would have bothered, but it'd be interesting.

Makes it hard to plan commercial jobs, but weather and forecasting in general is mostly hit and miss.
 
Once upon a time, everyone knew the limitations to forecast accuracy.
It used to be said that you could tell a meteorologist was lying if his lips were moving.
There are many reasons a forecast can differ significantly from the actual wind you experience at your flying site and time.
But nowdays if you put it in an app on a screen, many have supreme confidence and think the forecast is the wind they'll actually experience.
 
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