D
Deleted member 93449
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Epidemiologists know viruses; they don’t know economies. Their word is not gospel, but it has to be taken as part of a whole, and the big picture can never get lost. A recession heavy and deep enough will for all intents and purposes be indistinguishable in the damage it wreaks across the country from a bad pandemic. Recessions cause death and suffering too. My suggestion would not be to just “let it run it’s course,” don’t really know where that came from. I am just suggesting that maybe, just maybe, there are other approaches that we could consider. Other countries are taking different steps. Some are quarantining the elderly (65+), being the most vulnerable population, and letting everyone else go to work as normal with heightened awareness and proactive measures about sanitizing, touching of the face, unnecessary crowds etc. the lock-step I see in the media and the government with complete lack of opposing views on the steps we have and are taking is concerning to me. Any time there is unanimous consensus and no debate on something my antennae pop up. Especially on something with the enormous consequences as shutting down the American economy.
On a side note, I’ve worked in healthcare for over 15 years now. I am still going to work every day because I have to, knowing full well that I am potentially exposing myself to this thing. So I assure you there is no “ignorance” going on here - what there is is perspective and healthy skepticism. Those things are important to have no matter what is going on. I am not bringing up these questions out of concern for myself or any kind of selfishness, healthcare is notoriously recession-proof. America could be burning and I would still have a job to go to. Recessions don’t affect me the way they do most people. I am concerned about the millions of people out there who don’t have the means to make it through a deep recession.
I haven't seen an actuarial study of the various cost of one strategy versus the others proposed (mass quarantine versus selective for the elder and others at high risk). I'm in that high risk group and would have no problem having that discussion since as you said there will be a cost in lives associated with a deep recession.
But to have an intelligent conversation we would need an accurate understanding of all the cost involved. This virus is said to be 3 or 4 times more contagious than the regular flu. There will be a lot of people under 65 that will get very sick that won't die but will need out of home medical care. According to the statistics I've read there is a higher mortality rate for those under 65 versus the death rate from the seasonal flu. It may be far to early to know with any certainty what the ultimate cost will be of the various strategies so the immediate strategy would be to do what you know will save lives now versus making decision based on speculations about what the cost in lives my be in 1 ~ 5 years due to a long recession.