A gust of wind can't send your drone down into the water.
Neither can a reflection.
Did you ever have your flight data looked at to see what it showed?
The biggest worry is that you cannot manually switch to atti mode.
Because of this when launching or catching, if the boat is moving, as soon as you start up or grab the drone, it will fight against the movement, attempting to hold position.
You...
Not if you stop before you hit the water.
How close to the water are you intending the drone to be?
If you are using the wideangle camera, remember everything will appear further away than it really is.
The incidents discussed previously in this thread would have seen the drone descend or fly into the water in a normal flying attitude.
If your drone actually "flipped over" and fell into the water, it was for a different reason which was...