flying in the UK covid update

[Lurch003]

I am fortunate that I have a large area on my property to fly and have had perhaps 15 flights in the past week mainly with trialing camera settings. The flights are generally up to 200 feet and then a pan. I am going to make a video for U tube in which I simplify camera settings for shooting video.

There are so many camera settings so I am trying to find the best simple settings that give a provide good quality video. Watching U tube videos on camera settings I am trying to sort the chaff from the rest plus the fact that my Pinnacle editing software does not like codex H265 and D-log M. Maybe time for a change perhaps but from what I have seen the rest of the editing software is more expensive.

I'd be very interested in your vid @deltamike, I've been playing around and feel none the wiser! Watched a few YT vids, one of IanInLondon's helped the most but still struggling! Tried a sunset at the weekend but as the sky comes alive, the ground gets too dark! And I've not got the editing skills to "sort it out in post" as most suggest! Only using IceCream video editor as my laptop is too weak for the Davinci that everyone seems to recommend on here

 

[deltamike]

Thanks. Keep an eye on HERE

I hope to put it on U Tube when the settings are finalized in a week or two.

 

[Lurch003]

Thanks. Keep an eye on HERE

I hope to put it on U Tube when the settings are finalized in a week or two.

Thanks Mike, will do.

Fantastic intro on your drone videos- soon I'll have an understanding of the video settings AND be able to fix a dishwasher

 

[deltamike]

Not exactly a flying drone but a drone never the less. Novel !!

HERE

 

[bushie]

+1. I was absolutely flabbergasted when it became clear that all four regions were going to be going off in different directions

Dont worry. Every state and territory here are going different directions. Fortunately here in WA some sanity has prevailed - kids are back at school and as from Monday some bars and restaurants will be open. Intrastate zones have also been reduced. In reality the restrictions did not impact us much. Pretty much able to fly my Mavic where l wanted locally. Overall we were lucky with a low infection rate and less than 100 deaths nationally

 

[zocalo]

Dont worry. Every state and territory here are going different directions. Fortunately here in WA some sanity has prevailed - kids are back at school and as from Monday some bars and restaurants will be open. Intrastate zones have also been reduced. In reality the restrictions did not impact us much. Pretty much able to fly my Mavic where l wanted locally. Overall we were lucky with a low infection rate and less than 100 deaths nationally

Yeah, it's similar in the US too, since state governers have the ultimate say. In a UK context, NI is a bit different since it's physically separate (the border with Ireland being the issue there), but I was hoping that we'd be able to avoid the obvious issues of having to chose between having travel between regions that might have significantly different infection rates or potentially enforcing borders where people are not used to there being one. Shades of all those dystopian novels where an undesirable class is segregated into zones of some kind - it never ends well.

It's a combination of political points scoring and a failure to agree consensus at the worst possible time for either, IMHO. Still, I guess it could be worse - there are multiple towns in the EU that actually span national borders. Gotta be tough when you have bars etc. on the other side of town open, but all of your's are still shut!

 

[panda23]

Its all politics - deliberately doing something differently just to remind people they're present and pretend to be relevant.

If Boris said something would open on Tuesday, Cardiff Bay would say Wednesday just to make a point. Same in Scotland with Sturgeon getting a confidential cabinet briefing then going to press conference 30 mins before the main one to get the jump on it.

Theres no way you're going to get consensus among the devolved governments because its conservative main vs labour/nats elsewhere. They'll always use it to politically point score.

If Boris says its safe to come out they'll say the opposite. If Boris says stay indoors they'll say its safe to come out.

If i decide to return to Wales in the next few weeks im quite luckily in that im about 20-30 mins drive from the border so provided i can sneak out to England for the day i can escape house arrest. There are enough quiet roads the chances of getting caught are slim.
Anyone living further west is likely not that lucky and cant do that.

Boris has ****** up, now needs to open the economy up but the virus still hasn't peaked in some areas so expect another surge in the next few weeks. What a shambles.

 

[gnirtS]

Gotta be tough when you have bars etc. on the other side of town open, but all of your's are still shut!

England allowed golf courses to open, Wales didn't. Theres at least one course with half the holes in England and the other half in Wales as it straddles the border.

Also a department store on the dutch/belgium border where only half of its departments were open for the same reason.

Boris has ****** up, now needs to open the economy up but the virus still hasn't peaked in some areas so expect another surge in the next few weeks. What a shambles.

Well lockdown was the wrong thing to do (he had the right idea for 3 days before a huge u-turn thanks to the discredited end of the world imperial model). Lockdown even on their own graphs (and all other modelers) guarantees a second wave and peak. Hiding behind the sofa while the house burns just delays things, it doesnt prevent at all.
The only viable solution is to let enough people catch it and protect the (few) groups it ruthlessly hurts.

 

[panda23]

England allowed golf courses to open, Wales didn't. Theres at least one course with half the holes in England and the other half in Wales as it straddles the border.

Also a department store on the dutch/belgium border where only half of its departments were open for the same reason.



Well lockdown was the wrong thing to do (he had the right idea for 3 days before a huge u-turn thanks to the discredited end of the world imperial model). Lockdown even on their own graphs (and all other modelers) guarantees a second wave and peak. Hiding behind the sofa while the house burns just delays things, it doesnt prevent at all.
The only viable solution is to let enough people catch it and protect the (few) groups it ruthlessly hurts.

Let people catch it lol, do you have any idea what the virus is doing to even healthy people, and no i am not talking about deaths.

 

[gnirtS]

Let people catch it lol, do you have any idea what the virus is doing to even healthy people, and no i am not talking about deaths.

Yes i do. 70- 75% never get sick or develop any symptoms at all. Of those that do, 95% of those will have mild or flu like symptoms that resolve on their own.
It attacks specific groups (elderly, diabetic)so they need to be sheltered.

And its not going away. Its endemic. You cant hide behind your sofa and keep everyone locked up for the next 10 years. Sweden has the right idea. The UK did but bottled it after looking at Fergusons random number generator.

 

[panda23]

Yes i do. 70- 75% never get sick or develop any symptoms at all. Of those that do, 95% of those will have mild or flu like symptoms that resolve on their own.
It attacks specific groups (elderly, diabetic)so they need to be sheltered.

And its not going away. Its endemic. You cant hide behind your sofa and keep everyone locked up for the next 10 years. Sweden has the right idea. The UK did but bottled it after looking at Fergusons random number generator.

Let a new virus with lots of unknowns about just rip through a population is madness. I know 2 people who have had strokes with the disease and both are now unable to speak at present. 1 is in her 50's and the other one is in his 30's. Another guy locally a fitness freak was intensive care for 5 weeks with it but thankfully is home now but has lung damage and cannot even get up the stairs in his house at present. There is also no evidence that having had the disease it will provide immunity in the long term anyway.

 

[zocalo]

Yes i do. 70- 75% never get sick or develop any symptoms at all. Of those that do, 95% of those will have mild or flu like symptoms that resolve on their own.

Citation needed. AFAIK the world is still lacking a reliable antibody test survey across a significant enough proportion of a population to establish the asymptomatic percentage (we're getting close though), let alone one that will let you determine many people have actually already had it without showing any symptoms required to support that assertion. Until we get a reliable study that shows the percentage of a population that have active antibodies, it's all guesswork.

We can play with some numbers we do have though. Early results from the ongoing ONS survey indicates around 0.24% of the UK population (about 140,000 people) is currently infected. From that fraction, we got 3,560 confirmed new cases (this includes those some are asymptomatic but got a test because of a family member being a key worker, plus all those who believed they may have been exposed but did not contract the disease) and 384 deaths yesterday. Noted that there is some lag in the progression of the disease, but there is simply no way you can spin that into an overall asymptomatic rate of 70-75% based on the ONS' numbers alone, and regardless of the ratio, the mortality rate for those whose symptoms are bad enough to require hospitalisation is still alarmingly high.

On the plus side, it does look like the early indications of second infection might have been false positives, but without all those data points being confirmed with a reasonable degree of certainty any talk of herd immunity is not just playing Russian roulette with lives, it's doing so without even knowing how many bullets are in the gun. I'd normally say let people make up their own minds whether to take a chance or not, but given how much FUD and false information there is (5G anyone?), that's just going to mean a lot of stupid people getting infected and taking up hospital beds that might be needed for people who got it through no fault of their own.

 

[gnirtS]

Let a new virus with lots of unknowns about just rip through a population is madness.

Yet this happens every year with novel viruses and you're complaining about one?

There is also no evidence that having had the disease it will provide immunity in the long term anyway.

Actually there is. The statement was true in maybe January. Since then theres more and more evidence of immunity. 4 million plus cases and zero reinfections also adds weight to it. As do the other 4 coronaviruses that affect people every year where most people get immunity for 2-3 years.

Also, if there is no immunity whats your solution? Permanent house arrest for the entire population?

AFAIK the world is still lacking a reliable antibody test survey across a significant enough proportion of a population to establish the asymptomatic percentage (we're getting close though)

There have been reliable antibody tests for a few months now (forget the UK, the monolithic dinosaurs running PHE are too slow to certify) and its being rolled out.

Stockholm showed roughly 30% exposure. NYC had 24% in some studies for example. Actual figures. The ONS is just guesswork based on the same proven flawed imperial modelling. The same day other studies estimated 20% based on actual tests (albeit small sample sizes).

Diamond Princess 74% of positives were asymptomatic. CdG aircraft carrier showed 50%. US carrier roughly similar.
Chinese roughy 78% (BMJ 369). Iceland over 50%.
US Federal prison study showed 96%.
Plenty of other figures out BMJ/Nature or preprint to browse.

The UK is woefully third world in lack of testing so is simple incapable of producing data.

This is why mass random testing and sampling of *healthy* people combined with trave and isolate was so effctive for countries that could be arsed to do it.

Ultimately its something that a lot of people will get, a lot wont realise they've had most wont get sick or very sick at all but it'll cull vulnerable groups badly. So they need to be protected.
But keeping people under house arrest for several years is never going to work. You cant hide for ever.

Herd immunity IS a natural process and is happening in places already. Shielding your entire population just means you;ve delayed your deaths -you'll still get them just later in the year.

Ultimately lockdown is already costing lives and that's going to grow. Once the enforced recession kicks in it'll cost far more than covid could.

 

[panda23]

Yet this happens every year with novel viruses and you're complaining about one?



Actually there is. The statement was true in maybe January. Since then theres more and more evidence of immunity. 4 million plus cases and zero reinfections also adds weight to it. As do the other 4 coronaviruses that affect people every year where most people get immunity for 2-3 years.

Also, if there is no immunity whats your solution? Permanent house arrest for the entire population?



There have been reliable antibody tests for a few months now (forget the UK, the monolithic dinosaurs running PHE are too slow to certify) and its being rolled out.

Stockholm showed roughly 30% exposure. NYC had 24% in some studies for example. Actual figures. The ONS is just guesswork based on the same proven flawed imperial modelling. The same day other studies estimated 20% based on actual tests (albeit small sample sizes).

Diamond Princess 74% of positives were asymptomatic. CdG aircraft carrier showed 50%. US carrier roughly similar.
Chinese roughy 78% (BMJ 369). Iceland over 50%.
US Federal prison study showed 96%.
Plenty of other figures out BMJ/Nature or preprint to browse.

The UK is woefully third world in lack of testing so is simple incapable of producing data.

This is why mass random testing and sampling of *healthy* people combined with trave and isolate was so effctive for countries that could be arsed to do it.

Ultimately its something that a lot of people will get, a lot wont realise they've had most wont get sick or very sick at all but it'll cull vulnerable groups badly. So they need to be protected.
But keeping people under house arrest for several years is never going to work. You cant hide for ever.

Herd immunity IS a natural process and is happening in places already. Shielding your entire population just means you;ve delayed your deaths -you'll still get them just later in the year.

Ultimately lockdown is already costing lives and that's going to grow. Once the enforced recession kicks in it'll cost far more than covid could.

Like I said there is zero evidence that having covid19 will give you immunity in the long term which I think you agree with. You cannot isolate the vulnerable as they need help with day to day living from fit and healthy carers, nurses, etc, etc so how you square that circle with letting this virus just run rampant. No surprise we have the highest death toll in Europe. Should have locked down harder and a lot earlier imo

 

[zocalo]

Actually there is. The statement was true in maybe January. Since then theres more and more evidence of immunity. 4 million plus cases and zero reinfections also adds weight to it. As do the other 4 coronaviruses that affect people every year where most people get immunity for 2-3 years.

Also, if there is no immunity whats your solution? Permanent house arrest for the entire population?

Yes, there's evidence of *some* immunity, but what we don't currently know is how long it lasts. Could be permanent, could be a few months, could be the 2-3 years you suggest - which is probably more likely, given the type of virus and how others of type play out.

My solution? Gradual relaxation of restrictions, see what works and what doesn't based on infection rates, backout those changes that don't. Each country (or state/region) trying slightly different things actually works well on a global scale for this - we basically have a few hundred tests running in parallel. All the while we should obviously continue to capture data, develop and refine your procedures and models, and improve your medical capabilities. The crux, and entire purpose of restrictions, is preventing medical services from being overwhelmed until you either get to something close to herd immunity or develop a vaccine (they are the only two real "endgames") - and avoiding another situation where hospitals were overrun like in Lombardy at all costs.

I don't see any reason why we can't go back to work, start enjoying the countryside etc., but I do think that there needs to be continued restrictons and additional measures, especially invovling things like mass transit and sporting events where large numbers of random people congregate. That does, however, need to be balanced against the available medical resources; if you have a lot of beds and ventilators then you have a lot more latitude to relax restrictions than if you don't. It's also a personal matter - everyone's circumstances are different, so it's also very important that if an employer wants to resume operations then they should not be penalising any employees who may not wish to take unnecessary risks if they have good reason - being in, or caring for someone in, a high risk group, for instance.

Stockholm showed roughly 30% exposure. NYC had 24% in some studies for example. Actual figures. The ONS is just guesswork based on the same proven flawed imperial modelling. The same day other studies estimated 20% based on actual tests (albeit small sample sizes).

Diamond Princess 74% of positives were asymptomatic. CdG aircraft carrier showed 50%. US carrier roughly similar.
Chinese roughy 78% (BMJ 369). Iceland over 50%.
US Federal prison study showed 96%.

The ONS study is based on antibody test kits sent out to randomly selected people.

So, we have 24% (NYC), 30% (Stockholm) - both general, and very representative urban populations - and 50% (Iceland) - roughly 50-50 between urban (mostly Reykjavik) and extremely rural - none of which support your 70-75% assertion. China's figures are in the ballpark, but either false (as the US keeps claiming), a demonstration of how effective a draconian lockdown can be on keeping mortality down, or some combination of the two - everyone will need to make up their own mind on that point (I'm in the "combination" camp). On the otherhand we have captive audiences where the virus is going to run rampant like ships and prisons ranging from 50-96%. The latter does bode quite well, but those are not representative population samples; the ships all have a population generally biased towards younger crew and I don't have any data on the prison survey demographics, but I believe prison populations are more biased towards youth as well. Either way, there are some awfully error bars in there - larger than those from Ferguson's "model", in fact - so we're back to Russian roulette.

We need data, we don't need to be reckless.