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My thoughts on what’s coming this year, plus what I would love to see. Would love your opinion! Also, I can’t believe how many people actually want a waterproof drone!
2024 Drone/Specs Wishlist & Predictions?
- Thread starter 51 Drones
- Start date
My thoughts:
The number one killer of many of the advances the drone world is looking for comes from government regulations. First, there are too many onerous regulations that restrict the technology and do not permit it to grow or take-off which is key to rapid technology growth in the industry. Second, the unpredictability and the inability to anticipate where the regulations will go puts a damper on innovation and vision for the future. No company is willing to invest in an "idea" if they can't be sure it won't be limited or even shutdown by unnecessary and unwanted government regulations.
Your government is literally standing in the way and is actually slowing down the progress and it is causing the ripple effect and adversely impacting other things that may not be directly involved such as pricing (which should be going down) but since it's going up it makes it more difficult to add more valuable features. And then there is the integration of current technology that can't even get started unless and until there are assurances it will pay off.
Current rules and regulations including more onerous laws coming down the road (especially from non-federal entities) are sending a message to everybody that you will need to take some serious risks if you choose to get involved. If you choose to navigate this endless maze filled with seeming arbitrary regulations that don't include traditional features like grandfathering or that don't make sense, unpredictable legal issues and court rulings making it impossible to plan accordingly and prepare for legal challenges, or the eroding public perception that continue to haunt us....all of this means you end up not giving the work your best efforts and the best companies and the smartest people put their talents to use elsewhere. Excessive rules and regulations will literally crush most companies and only the likes of DJI is able to withstand or absorb the punishment and burden inflicted on the drone community. Nobody else wants to step up. We are making some progress but it will be slower and less exciting than it could be. We cannot expect drones to explode like mobile phones or computers (less government rules and regulations) for example. Think of cars (more government rules and regulations) where it takes decades and decades to see technology come alive.
The number one killer of many of the advances the drone world is looking for comes from government regulations. First, there are too many onerous regulations that restrict the technology and do not permit it to grow or take-off which is key to rapid technology growth in the industry. Second, the unpredictability and the inability to anticipate where the regulations will go puts a damper on innovation and vision for the future. No company is willing to invest in an "idea" if they can't be sure it won't be limited or even shutdown by unnecessary and unwanted government regulations.
Your government is literally standing in the way and is actually slowing down the progress and it is causing the ripple effect and adversely impacting other things that may not be directly involved such as pricing (which should be going down) but since it's going up it makes it more difficult to add more valuable features. And then there is the integration of current technology that can't even get started unless and until there are assurances it will pay off.
Current rules and regulations including more onerous laws coming down the road (especially from non-federal entities) are sending a message to everybody that you will need to take some serious risks if you choose to get involved. If you choose to navigate this endless maze filled with seeming arbitrary regulations that don't include traditional features like grandfathering or that don't make sense, unpredictable legal issues and court rulings making it impossible to plan accordingly and prepare for legal challenges, or the eroding public perception that continue to haunt us....all of this means you end up not giving the work your best efforts and the best companies and the smartest people put their talents to use elsewhere. Excessive rules and regulations will literally crush most companies and only the likes of DJI is able to withstand or absorb the punishment and burden inflicted on the drone community. Nobody else wants to step up. We are making some progress but it will be slower and less exciting than it could be. We cannot expect drones to explode like mobile phones or computers (less government rules and regulations) for example. Think of cars (more government rules and regulations) where it takes decades and decades to see technology come alive.
Wow. If I felt that way, I'd sell all my drones and move to Bolivia.
Please provide an example or two of the onerous regulations that are strangling drone technology development.
Who are the non-federal entities making drone regulations? What regulations?
Mystery and unpredictability in federal drone regulations? Not that I've seen. RID is probably the biggest thing in drone regulations recently. It didn't happen suddenly; there was a three-year process. DJI has no particular difficulties making their drones compliant, even older models.
- The FAA issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in December of 2019 and solicited comments from the public. 50,000 comments were received and considered.
- In May of 2020, the FAA set up a partnership with eight companies to establish a framework for technology requirements associated with RID.
- In December of 2020, the FAA issued the final rule on RID, with an implementation date of September 2023.
Wow - you act as if end users with recreational flights actually matters to the FAA and the interests that create the rules and regulations in the first place. If you watch some of the videos of the FAA meetings you will find that we don't really even have a seat at the table. All of the discussions regarding upcoming rules for sUAS are geared towards the industry players with tens of millions on the table for unmanned delivery systems and the likes. We represent people who are getting in the way of commercial "progress".
If anything the regulations and restrictions for recreational users are going to be a lot more intrusive than anything you see right now. Recreational users are seen pretty much like mosquitos to be swatted away.
I don't particularly love the fact that this is the direction things are headed in the current environment of sub-400' airspace but I have to be realistic about whose voice is currently being heard and it isn't ours.
Im not sure about all that since I haven't addressed it directly in this thread. I've stated my opinion in the first paragraph and it's absolutely true. Sounds like you agree with me.
The one thing that I would like to add is uncertainty in the direction the industry is taking (meaning you can't be sure what may or many not happen) has a big impact on how well the industry can grow and evolve. It's easier to act or react to trends in technology and the marketplace and the economy but less so when it comes to government regulations. You could be building a business on day and then next month out of nowhere you learn about imminent bad news coming in the next few year or the tech you were counting on has vanished thanks to uncle sam....
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I agree that there are a lot of regulations that will impact recreational users but I am also being realistic that we will be sharing the airspace we are allowed to play in with commercial interests that have a lot more clout than we do. I don't see any possibility that any of the current rules will be relaxed and if anything they are going to get a lot more restrictive.
Agreed. In my previous comments, I made no mention of recreational (vs. commercial) drone pilots but my comments had to do with the *entire* drone industry and the impact of government regulations mostly on the companies and the businesses involved.
But since you mentioned "recreational" I will say this: the drone industry will never go anywhere without massive support from the recreational drone community. Without recreational flyers, the drone industry cannot thrive and/or survive as the commercial use of drones only will never make any high-tech electronics blow up. The focus needs to be on the recreational community and without commenting on the state of the climate today, the climate of tomorrow needs to looks nothing like it does today in my opinion. It's easy to see where drones can go (in short order) if we just take a look at other similar successes and do our best to replicate. I realize everyone is thinking drones for the public sector and drones for delivery etc but that isn't the real future of drones. In other words, the "clout" may need to shift.
And to comment on your last point about rules becoming more restrictive, I'm not against safety or control that ensures success for everyone but even more government rules and regulations (of the wrong type) will strangle this industry. We need less. Even if that means some things need to evolve.
ryguy80
Well-Known Member
I don't know if we see a Mini 5 Pro this year but would be curious to see if DJI will use the 1-inch sensor from the Pocket 3 into the Mini drone.
mobilehomer
Well-Known Member
My wish list is simple - Active Track 360 for the Mavic 3 series.
Cloud/PC based waypoint programming with FULL edit capabilities, such as adding intermediate waypoints.
8X digital zoom - Classic
Cloud/PC based waypoint programming with FULL edit capabilities, such as adding intermediate waypoints.
8X digital zoom - Classic
I will give you credit for being an optimist about the level of impact the recreational side of sUAS will have on the directions the associated industries will take but I fear that won't be the case at all. If you look carefully at how aviation rules are made it has little in common with how quickly tech industry developments are taking place. Aviation Rulemaking Committees (ARC) can spend months and years to reach recommendations for new regulations so the FAA is a big slow ship that only makes gradual turns. Only Congress can change that state of affairs. The FAA's task is to safely regulate the NAS and not one that includes the well being of the drone manufacturers.
Almost all of your wish list use case is for what are basically recreational pilots which is why I brought up this as a category. The FAA ARCs looking at the topic of BVLOS in the 0-400' airspace are composed of almost entirely of industry techs working for or with light freight delivery. This does include folks like Amazon/UPS but also has a lot of companies we haven't really heard of yet who will be doing contract work handling point to point deliveries like hospital supplies and other time sensitive packages. Their plans for using the 0-400' AGL airspace are quite ambitious with large delivery drones and they are the ones sitting on the FAA ARCs writing up the BVLOS recommendations. While you may not care about BVLOS for your own flights the drone that is coming into your flight area might be part of a fleet of 8-12 drones being run by one pilot at a central control point with no VLOS whatever. There is nothing on the table in the current ARC recommendations suggesting ADS-B broadcasts from transportation related sUAS flights in the 0-400' AGL airspace. There is an acknowledged need for a Detect and Avoid sensory technology standard that a new FAA ARC is working on.
I keep dropping in the link to the final ARC BVLOS Report but so far I have seen little evidence that anyone is actually reading it carefully to assess how these recommendations will impact their use of the airspace we fly in. Yes it is a very long report but these recommendations might well be the next new set of rules we may have to live by for years to come.
BVLOS ARC Final Report
Don't shoot the messenger. I'm just trying to keep track of what all is going on in the airspace I regularly use and what might be coming up in the near future.
Wreckhunter
Well-Known Member
Hope your are right about an Air3s.But I wonder if they would come out with a Mavic 4 pro before that,
so the O4 transmission system would be up to date to match up with the Air 3 and Mini 4 pro.
Enjoy your day.
BobaFut
Well-Known Member
Just mentioned this in another thread, but I would love an HDR Panorama function. I don't need it to merge or stitch, just shoot 5 AEB photos along the wide-angle, 180, and 360 grid (although I could do without 360 for HDR) and give me the RAW files.
The only thing the guy in the video talked about that may or is being hindered by the government is cellular communications between drone and controller, but more because of BVLOS capability. I don't think the USA will allow cellular communications because they fear pilots will fly BVLOS and ignore the VLOS rules. All the other stuff he discussed, in my opinion, hasn't been altered by government regs. Feel free if you can cite other things he talked of that the government regulates.
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