I think a reasonable assumption is that the wind direction was roughly constant, but I would expect that the wind speed will decrease with decreasing altitude (as indicated by AirData). So direction of travel during descent should stay the same, but speed will decrease. That's why assuming constant lateral speed should give a conservatively high estimate of how far it may have gone.
Note that you can also approximate the result pretty well in Google Earth by plotting the flight path, then while sighting down the descent path place a marker on the ground. If you the change to a vertical view you can see the extra distance travelled. That method also takes into account terrain variation down range of the last recorded point. The two images below illustrate the method. In this case the intersect with the ground is 165 m beyond the last recorded point.
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