You know exactly what I mean. You also can read the responses in this thread to determine who I am talking about. If you can not figure either one of those out on your own, that is on you.
How do you think it’ll be 10 years? I do not have an estimate, but a decade is laughable.
The Chinese drone sales in the USA is done (for now). Its completely wrecked, no need to make any “dents.” The Chinese will continue to make progress in all kinds of industries, including drones. Also the Chinese (DJI) will continue to sell drones to rest of the world.
Edit. I’d like to get a new DJI drone, but that is not easily feasible. So I won’t and I am looking into assembling my own.
A) If I knew what you meant, I wouldn't ask. And I don't appreciate the hostility. I'm not betting against the U.S., I'm a realist. I follow this entire situation almost daily. I speak with people in D.C. weekly about it. Some days I'm cautiously optimistic, and some days I'm just hopeful. Some days it changes two or three times, depending on who I talk to in D.C. Whether via email, zoom, or even in person.
B) It's going to be at least 10 years because I know what I'm talking about. I understand the situation better than the vast majority of people in this industry. I know what it takes to develop a DJI comparable drone, and how long it would take to spool up manufacturing to match the 100's of 1000s of drones we need in this country every year. And there is not a single U.S. or Ally based drone manufacturer even interested in the prosumer or consumer market. So we'd be starting from scratch.
We don't have the engineers in this country to do this. DJI employees approximately 3500 engineers alone. And no one is quite sure how many software engineers they employ, but with a workforce estimated at 14,000 people, it will be a large number.
Let's talk about something as simply as raw materials, specifically lithium. We have very large deposits of lithium in this country (Louisiana, Arkansas, Nevada). But how long do you think it will take to get EPA approval, then the mining has to spool up. No, 10 years minimum.
C) The Chinese drones sales are definitely not "done". At all. How often do you talk to DJI leadership about this? I have 5 times today alone. How deeply do you understand what it going on behind the scenes? And yes, if we do eventually have a ban (very unlikely at this point), DJI and others will not stop making drones. If that happens, the U.S. will continue to fall behind the rest of the world when it comes to UAS usage. And that's part of the issue no one in D.C. wants to talk about.
So no, I still don't know what you mean by betting against the U.S. You sound like Michael Robbins.