US will unleash 'drone dominance' by fast-tracking production

[mavic3usa]

I'm not even sure the U.S. has the ability to easily manufacture products like this on a large scale, assembly line type basis these days.

I think the only things that are manufactured like that here these days are some automobiles, firearms, and some musical equipment/instrument manufacturers. I can't think of any type of mass produced, consumer oriented electronic item that is made here.

Honestly, there is also this. If U.S. drone manufacturers were interested in manufacturing and marketing a consumer level drone that was on par with DJI, they'd have done so. Skydio certainly isn't, they stopped selling to consumers, and the really surprising thing is that there isn't really a U.S. based company that has even tried setting up a manufacturing line in China or elsewhere and manufacturing DJI style drones intended for consumer use. That last part is what I find puzzling, because the market is certainly there.

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[glocke12]

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1) They do not and are not interested in selling to consumers...frankly I dont think they feel consumers should own drones for recreational flying

2) They are part of the problem as their lobbyists are in part responsible for the issues facing DJI here in the states

3) 100 people. that is a small manufacturing facility geared towards small scale production for a small customer base. It's not anywhere near the scale that would be required to provide these things to the consumer market and Im betting it'd be difficult for them to scale up to that level. Even if they did, as someone else said the prices would be astronomical unless other companies stepped up and provided competition.

 

[Dave Pitman]

I'm not even sure the U.S. has the ability to easily manufacture products like this on a large scale, assembly line type basis these days.

3) 100 people. that is a small manufacturing facility geared towards small scale production for a small customer base. It's not anywhere near the scale that would be required to provide these things to the consumer market and Im betting it'd be difficult for them to scale up to that level. Even if they did, as someone else said the prices would be astronomical unless other companies stepped up and provided competition.

Facts.

Folks don't seem to understand the scale at which China, and some other Asian countries, are manufacturing these electronics and other items. I have seen reporting from folks that have visited these manufacturing "plants" in person.

They are blown away. The assembly lines are composed of mostly specialized robots which the potential US manufacturer would also have to develop. It is not just a line of people like the Skydio example. Couple that with the fact that the "plants" are actually self contained communities with both residential and commercial aspects focused on supporting the manufacturing and all of the supply chain elements required by it.

There is a reason why US entrepreneurs can't just pile a bunch of $$ into it and make it happen. The required culture that has developed to manufacture at that scale has taken decades to establish. The idea that the gov't can just stop the import of this gear and the result will be a grass roots manufacturing culture in a few years is just highly unlikely, unfortunately. There is a reason why the notion of restricting Asian made smart phones TACO'd almost instantly.

 

[mavic3usa]

Facts.

Folks don't seem to understand the scale at which China, and some other Asian countries, are manufacturing these electronics and other items. I have seen reporting from folks that have visited these manufacturing "plants" in person.

They are blown away. The assembly lines are composed of mostly specialized robots which the potential US manufacturer would also have to develop. It is not just a line of people like the Skydio example. Couple that with the fact that the "plants" are actually self contained communities with both residential and commercial aspects focused on supporting the manufacturing and all of the supply chain elements required by it.

There is a reason why US entrepreneurs can't just pile a bunch of $$ into it and make it happen. The required culture that has developed to manufacture at that scale has taken decades to establish. The idea that the gov't can just stop the import of this gear and the result will be a grass roots manufacturing culture in a few years is just highly unlikely, unfortunately. There is a reason why the notion of restricting Asian made smart phones TACO'd almost instantly.

I have been to electronics factories in China, Korean, and Japan (not for drones) and I am blown away. No question about it. Not saying America can't get there one day but it's not looking good in so many ways. I took a lot of flack in a post last year when I said America wasn't smart enough to do this but later clarified that I meant pulling together all the resources and the experience and the knowledge and the infrastructure and the logistics to make a superior 100% American product in a timely fashion. We're smart (which is why China is mostly stealing everything they know from us) but maybe we're so smart that we can't see the forest for the trees. As a country we've been paralyzed for quite some time and we still are.

P.S. I've been in US factories in the past and they were pretty impressive, too.

 

[anotherlab]

Skydio assembles their drones in the US, but a substantial portion of the parts come from Asia.

Batteries: Dongguan Poweramp Technology Ltd, manufactured in Guangdong, China
Camera sensor: Sony IMX577 image sensor. manufactured in Guangdong, China
Camera processor: Qualcomm QCS605 SoC, manufactured in Taiwan and/or South Korea
SoC: NVIDIA Jetson Orin SoC, China and/or Taiwan

If the Skydio counts as a made-in-the-US drone, then DJI could just ship the internals to the US, manufacture the airframe locally, and then assemble them locally.

 

[mavic3usa]

If the Skydio counts as a made-in-the-US drone, then DJI could just ship the internals to the US, manufacture the airframe locally, and then assemble them locally.

Not sure "what counts" but the new math we are working off of means Skydio is good to go when it comes to supplying drones to the governments and DJI is a Chinese company no matter how they pull together, source, or locate their equipment.

 

[Dave Pitman]

new math

I think it's the same old math; pocket lining. Facts and policy need not apply.

 

[djwak59]

I think it's the same old math; pocket lining. Facts and policy need not apply.

Maybe if American businesses never started off shoring jobs and manufacturing years ago, we would have drones that could compete with DJI.

 

[anotherlab]

Maybe if American businesses never started off shoring jobs and manufacturing years ago, we would have drones that could compete with DJI.

That ship sailed 50 years ago. Consumer electronics were always a race to the bottom. Walmart laid a heavy hand on its supplies to move production to cheaper markets over the last 40 years. Consumers have not shown any great interest in paying more for "American-made" products.

This is not a path that can easily be walked back.

Take a pair of mid-priced sneakers that retail for $70. It costs between $15-$20 to make the sneaker, most probably in Vietnam. Then you have to pay the shipping costs and tariffs, so add a few bucks more to the cost. If you make the sneaker in the US, it may cost around $40 to make. (Source)

Retailers buy sneakers for about 50% of the list price, and big box stores pay even less. On the Vietnamese-made pair, the shoe company makes around $15-$17 on the sale of a $70 sneaker. That money has to cover the marketing and design costs, plus athlete endorsement costs.

If you want to make that sneaker in the US, you need to increase the price by 75% to 100% for the shoe company to make the same margin. The price goes up at a higher rate because the retailer is still getting it for 50% and now you are selling fewer of them because the cost went up.

And that's a product that could easily be produced in the US. Drones are a different story.

 

[mavic3usa]

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[djwak59]

That ship sailed 50 years ago. Consumer electronics were always a race to the bottom. Walmart laid a heavy hand on its supplies to move production to cheaper markets over the last 40 years. Consumers have not shown any great interest in paying more for "American-made" products.

This is not a path that can easily be walked back.

Take a pair of mid-priced sneakers that retail for $70. It costs between $15-$20 to make the sneaker, most probably in Vietnam. Then you have to pay the shipping costs and tariffs, so add a few bucks more to the cost. If you make the sneaker in the US, it may cost around $40 to make. (Source)

Retailers buy sneakers for about 50% of the list price, and big box stores pay even less. On the Vietnamese-made pair, the shoe company makes around $15-$17 on the sale of a $70 sneaker. That money has to cover the marketing and design costs, plus athlete endorsement costs.

If you want to make that sneaker in the US, you need to increase the price by 75% to 100% for the shoe company to make the same margin. The price goes up at a higher rate because the retailer is still getting it for 50% and now you are selling fewer of them because the cost went up.

And that's a product that could easily be produced in the US. Drones are a different story.

Totally agree !! I was just playing Devils Advocate with my reply. And it looks like it worked !

 

[wco81]

These are the list of drones approved by the US military.

https://www.diu.mil/blue-uas-cleared-list

Interesting designs. But if they're going to use drones like ammo, that is a lot of them are FPV kamikaze drones like the way the Ukraine military is using them can they produce these in huge volumes?

 

[Chip]

Consumer electronics were always a race to the bottom. Walmart laid a heavy hand on its supplies to move production to cheaper markets over the last 40 years. Consumers have not shown any great interest in paying more for "American-made" products.

I recall H Ross Perot debating Bush and Clinton. He called Clinton potato chip man because Clinton was all fired up about building a potato chip factory in Arkansas. He called Bush chicken man because he was all fired up about building a chicken farm processing plant. H Ross was very clear, the future is in manufacturing computer chips not potato chips.

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[anotherlab]

I recall H Ross Perot debating Bush and Clinton. He called Clinton potato chip man because Clinton was all fired up about building a potato chip factory in Arkansas. He called Bush chicken man because he was all fired up about building a chicken farm processing plant. H Ross was very clear, the future is in manufacturing computer chips not potato chips.

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The CHIPS and Science Act is promoting the creation of new fab plants in the US. TSMC and Intel are building new fabs in Arizona, TI & Samsung are building new fabs in Texas, new fabs have come online or are being constructed in Ohio and NY.

The AMD chips made by TSMC's fab in the US are about 5-20% more expensive than the ones made in Taiwan. This is huge. TSMC produces so many of the higher-end chips in Taiwan that any disruption would cause global supply line headaches.

 

[pinballwiz86]

The U.S. will never have "drone dominance", just like we'll never have dominance for any product that requires this level of manufacturing. We have been offshoring manufacturing (along with R&D and tech support) since the 1970s. Are we supposed to wave some magic wand and make it all come back? We don't have access to raw materials (even though we have MASSIVE lithium deposits) , nor do we have the manufacturing capabilities to produce the 100's of 1000s of new drones every year that we'll need to supply both the commercial and recreational side of the industry.

It's a pipe dream made up and supplied by the anti-China crowd, and pushed politically by U.S. manufacturers that can't compete with DJI and Autel.

The US government can pull the same move that China did and state fund a drone company. If Trump is serious about it an investment of $10 billion bucks should jumpstart it.

 

[mavic3usa]

The US government can pull the same move that China did and state fund a drone company. If Trump is serious about it an investment of $10 billion bucks should jumpstart it.

True but unfortunately that won't be enough for the private sector. Most US companies know this isn't the American way and would be hesitant to dive all-in only to have the rug pulled from under you should the President change his mind or Congress have other plans or a new Administration. This could happen overnight, in 2 years, or in 4 years. That just isn't enough time if you are planning long term for the consumer drone market but it might be enough for government projects or the military. Unlike in China where DJI *is* the CCP and basically forever.

If I'm the next President and Trump/Hegseth planned for elaborate scheme about drones, I'd probably pull the plug on it just because. Isn't that what happened earlier this year? How many "good" projects were sunk with the stroke of a pen? You saw whole swaths of dedicated loyal employees who spent entire careers and the better part of their adult life in service only to see it disappear into meaninglessness without even a thank-you. That's going to have consequences; not saying you won't get anyone to sign up but the biggest and the smartest and the brightest will have long memories and won't forget soon. $10B taxpayer money will be mostly wasted.

 

[hank970]

I doubt that our government gives a hoot about the consumer drone market. When Hegpeth trotted out his little dog and pony show, his backups weren't civilian hobbyists and business folks who shoot real estate videos. We've been slumbering for a long time, and events in Ukraine have sounded a wakeup call. Any production in the US that's funded by Uncle Sam would be intended only to satisfy military needs.

In better times, there might be civilian spin-offs, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Vic Moss]

The US government can pull the same move that China did and state fund a drone company. If Trump is serious about it an investment of $10 billion bucks should jumpstart it.

And built what? There isn't a single U.S. drone manufacturer that is interested in the prosumer market. Nor at any interested in the recreational market.

No, we don't have the interest by any manufacturers, or the ability to produce even if we did.

 

[tstr14]

In related news, at least one American Manufacturer is developing a prototype inexpensive craft designed for the amateur market.

 

[Vic Moss]

In related news, at least one American Manufacturer is developing a prototype inexpensive craft designed for the amateur market.

View attachment 184249

Which one?