For new pilots and new forum members. Kennziffer Planetary. What, why, and future UAV problems coming?

[KI5RLL]

Yes this was discussed in small bits and pieces scattered in older threads. But new NASA and space weather forecasts are coming in now. And we may see bigger numbers than in the last 6 years. Current information is needed.
If you still believe it is all a myth, fine, show me your science.

KP:

Yes that number on your Aloft app. It matters.

This may apply more to those of us who fly in over 40 states and travel often flying in the far north.
Those of us who are FCC licensed radio operators already are aware of this as we need to know its effects on radio propagation.
Likewise those of us with NOAA and NWS meteorology credentials, mainly space weather module certifications.

KP Index is necessary knowledge in many fields.

What?

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the earth's magnetic field with a number range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It comes from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval.

(English): Solar radiation to earth fluctuates, entering our magnetic field and atmosphere, causing ionization of the atmosphere and changes in magnetics and radio signals. It is measurable. It causes effects on our technology.

Why?

The solar radiation is cyclic as the sun reverses its magnetic poles about every 11 years.

These changes cause changes in intensity of sunspots and solar flares, causing solar winds to earth. 2012 (N) and 2013 (S) was the last time the sun’s magnetic polarity flipped.

Very very few civilian drones were flying then.

When this happens, sunspot and solar flare activity, which can disrupt communications and electrical systems on Earth, will increase until a peak sometime between 2023 and 2025. Starting in less than a year. It is not an acute event however. It will fluctuate before and after then.

Impact?

Were any of you flying a drone with the last high KP Index numbers with the last spike in solar winds striking earth?

Yes people today say no effect except mild GPS anomalies. In current rare 4-6 numbers.

Now we have millions of drones aloft, highly dependent on highly sensitive IMU, Compass, radio telemetry, micro wiring and sensitive computer chip technologies in flight.

None of the civilian drones are hardened against high KP numbers.

If you want more math and science on it, feel free to discuss it.

*Preparation, Prevention, Mitigation, Response, Recovery. (Those of us with FEMA and NIMS creds.)*

So you shouldn’t be flying at KP7+? Do you check the number before flying now? What else should we think about?

 

[akdrone]

KP 4 isn't all that rare here in the Fairbanks area. Assuming it's clear it almost guarantees a good aurora. I used to shoot aurora very often and I considered KP 3 good enough to get me out of the house. I don't know if I have ever seen KP6 but maybe once or twice. A KP 7 ??? Not that I have seen in the last 15 years although that doesn't mean it hasn't happened. I pay some attention to KP numbers because of the aurora but I personally won't be worrying about them. If I actually see upcoming KP of 7 or more I'll be sure to take my drone out to see if there's any effect. I doubt it but I was wrong about something a few years ago so it could happen again.. .

 

[Elthree]

I got used to Kp forecasts from my days as an aurora hunter (photography nutter).
These days I do note it in the UAV condition forecasts, mainly just because of effects on GPS reception.

Never really worried about it for GPS reception before, but my car/personal/yacht navigation has generally been happy with at least 4 good satellites (depending on the constellation configuration). The drones use it more inherently in the navigation systems and we care more about vertical as well as horizontal precision/consistency than before...

But if I see high Kp numbers I think about whether I want to drive to my nearest dark-sky location that evening to see what I can find...

 

[KI5RLL]

KP 4 isn't all that rare here in the Fairbanks area. Assuming it's clear it almost guarantees a good aurora. I used to shoot aurora very often and I considered KP 3 good enough to get me out of the house. I don't know if I have ever seen KP6 but maybe once or twice. A KP 7 ??? Not that I have seen in the last 15 years although that doesn't mean it hasn't happened. I pay some attention to KP numbers because of the aurora but I personally won't be worrying about them. If I actually see upcoming KP of 7 or more I'll be sure to take my drone out to see if there's any effect. I doubt it but I was wrong about something a few years ago so it could happen again.. .

I was hoping akdrone would chime in on this. Thank you for actual far north input!
None of us were flying drones 11 years ago at the last solar maximum. So this will be a new learning event for all of us. Especially if it goes bigger as some specialists say is probable.
I would like to be up there during a big aurora to use it for some 30Mhz radio work. Especially during a really high KP index.

 

[Meta4]

If you still believe it is all a myth, fine, show me your science.

I'm going to turn that around.
If you think it isn't just a myth, show a single example (with supporting flight data) to show a flight that was affected in any way by solar activity.
In 8 years of hearing warnings about solar activity and analysing data from flight incidents, I've not seen any flight that was affected.
There are thousands of drones flying every day and if it really was an issue, we'd hear of many incidents when the Kp Index is high (but we don't).

I think that by the time the Kp Index is high enough to cause trouble, flying your drone will be the last of your concerns.

 

[Starz]

From the non-scientific section.
I don’t use anything other than common sense when I get my flying hobby cameras out. No wind apps, no map apps, no weather apps and no solar flare apps.
It‘s a hobby, not a science adventure.(for me anyway)

 

[Jagerbomb52]

Exactly what @Meta4 said. This is just all BS and in the 8 years I been flying I have never heard of one crash caused by high KP index. The photo below I posted on the Autelpilots forums on 2017-04-22. It clearly shows a KP index of 8 starting at 1PM and dropping to a 5 by 3PM. I flew my very old Aultel x-star drone several times during that time to see if I would have noticed and problems. Nothing, zip , not one problem. Its a myth, get over it.

 

[KI5RLL]

I'm going to turn that around.
If you think it isn't just a myth, show a single example (with supporting flight data) to show a flight that was affected in any way by solar activity.
In 8 years of hearing warnings about solar activity and analysing data from flight incidents, I've not seen any flight that was affected.
There are thousands of drones flying every day and if it really was an issue, we'd hear of many incidents when the Kp Index is high (but we don't).

I think that by the time the Kp Index is high enough to cause trouble, flying your drone will be the last of your concerns.

All good points yes. Thank you. Solar radiation affecting earth is real. It is well known in many other fields as well. A serious geo magnetic storm will of course cause other more pressing concerns.
Of course there are no documented cases of a single UAV caused a crash etc. No one argues that. At current levels. And no one was flying civilian drones like these 11 years ago at the last solar maximum. When KP levels can be really high.
So none of us have been subjected to high atmospheric disturbances that high. So none of us know.
The point is forward thinking and risk assessment for a situation not yet experienced, but very possible to happen based on current science and known literature.
Many people have no idea yet this even exists.
Risk assessment and mitigation involves knowing the risk itself. And considering mitigation measures to lessen impact.
That is also a well-known simple measure.
Thank you again for the input to help new pilots.

Safe flying,
KI5RLL

 

[Kilrah]

Kp used to be considered important but not really anymore nowadays with the more advanced GPS receiver modules we have that support all the various global positioning systems out there. Seems that if it was a problem for drones, which has always been a bit debated things are even less sensitive to it now.

 

[YVRGUY]

Exactly what @Meta4 said. This is just all BS and in the 8 years I been flying I have never heard of one crash caused by high KP index. The photo below I posted on the Autelpilots forums on 2017-04-22. It clearly shows a KP index of 8 starting at 1PM and dropping to a 5 by 3PM. I flew my very old Aultel x-star drone several times during that time to see if I would have noticed and problems. Nothing, zip , not one problem. Its a myth, get over it.
View attachment 155990

This is what I love about this forum…food for thought. But, where’s Bill Nye the science guy when you need him?

 

[cameracamel]

This is what I love about this forum…food for thought. But, where’s Bill Nye the science guy when you need him?

Yes this was discussed in small bits and pieces scattered in older threads. But new NASA and space weather forecasts are coming in now. And we may see bigger numbers than in the last 6 years. Current information is needed.
If you still believe it is all a myth, fine, show me your science.

KP:

Yes that number on your Aloft app. It matters.

This may apply more to those of us who fly in over 40 states and travel often flying in the far north.
Those of us who are FCC licensed radio operators already are aware of this as we need to know its effects on radio propagation.
Likewise those of us with NOAA and NWS meteorology credentials, mainly space weather module certifications.

KP Index is necessary knowledge in many fields.

What?

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the earth's magnetic field with a number range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It comes from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval.

(English): Solar radiation to earth fluctuates, entering our magnetic field and atmosphere, causing ionization of the atmosphere and changes in magnetics and radio signals. It is measurable. It causes effects on our technology.

Why?

The solar radiation is cyclic as the sun reverses its magnetic poles about every 11 years.

These changes cause changes in intensity of sunspots and solar flares, causing solar winds to earth. 2012 (N) and 2013 (S) was the last time the sun’s magnetic polarity flipped.

Very very few civilian drones were flying then.

When this happens, sunspot and solar flare activity, which can disrupt communications and electrical systems on Earth, will increase until a peak sometime between 2023 and 2025. Starting in less than a year. It is not an acute event however. It will fluctuate before and after then.

Impact?

Were any of you flying a drone with the last high KP Index numbers with the last spike in solar winds striking earth?

Yes people today say no effect except mild GPS anomalies. In current rare 4-6 numbers.

Now we have millions of drones aloft, highly dependent on highly sensitive IMU, Compass, radio telemetry, micro wiring and sensitive computer chip technologies in flight.

None of the civilian drones are hardened against high KP numbers.

If you want more math and science on it, feel free to discuss it.

*Preparation, Prevention, Mitigation, Response, Recovery. (Those of us with FEMA and NIMS creds.)*

So you shouldn’t be flying at KP7+? Do you check the number before flying now? What else should we think about?

All I know about KP, is that you get to peel a LOT of potatoes !!!!!

 

[KI5RLL]

Carrington Event, Starfish Prime, and 8-1972 Vietnam events taught us much on this topic.
Is why we had to study it in class. Far-reaching implications.
We are ALL totally screwed some day with another Carrington or well-placed Starfish Prime.

 

[Capt KO]

Daily KP for your area is available on UAV Forcast. My go to for winds aloft. Early drones systems were not as robust as available now and high KP did have an effect. Pilots in South Africa tell me it still does and they monitor forcasts to be prepared. Guess location matters.

 

[Jagerbomb52]

Daily KP for your area is available on UAV Forcast. My go to for winds aloft. Early drones systems were not as robust as available now and high KP did have an effect. Pilots in South Africa tell me it still does and they monitor forcasts to be prepared. Guess location matters.

I started researching drones 2013-2014. The early phantoms did get a lot of videos posted of them just flying away after start up. Most were blamed on not doing a compass calibration, the old compass dance if you traveled more then 25 miles. Had nothing to do with high KP, just poor parts in the early stage of drones.
When the Yuneec Typhoon H came out it had problems with a toilet bowl effect and was traced back to some bad hardware.
The problem was even worse in south America and I think new firmware needed to be written but not sure on how they solve that one.
Bottom line it had nothing to do with KP, just bad components.

 

[Bob in Savannah]

This was a great and informative read. +1. I learned something. I'm glad, however, that it's more than likely a non-issue concerning my m3, (or any drone, really).

 

[Starz]

more than likely a non-issue

As with many other issues, it’s only an issue if you allow it to be.

 

[djwak59]

More reasons why I’m not sure I want to continue flying.
The enjoyment I used to get is becoming more and more like a full time job.
Just my opinion.

 

[Meta4]

More reasons why I’m not sure I want to continue flying.
The enjoyment I used to get is becoming more and more like a full time job.
Just my opinion.

Your reply is puzzling.
Why would some people believing a myth have any impact on your flying enjoyment?

 

[Ralph thompson]

I was hoping akdrone would chime in on this. Thank you for actual far north input!
None of us were flying drones 11 years ago at the last solar maximum. So this will be a new learning event for all of us. Especially if it goes bigger as some specialists say is probable.
I would like to be up there during a big aurora to use it for some 30Mhz radio work. Especially during a really high KP index.

I was flying the Phantom (0) in 2012. Didn’t know anything about the K index at that time. I had a number of crashes and it ended up in a lake at one time but kept on flying, a sturdy beast. After the lake incident, I did have to replace the GoPro. Today I am guilty of checking the K index post flight in Airdata. I will now add it to my check list.

 

[djwak59]

Your reply is puzzling.
Why would some people believing a myth have any impact on your flying enjoyment?

Seems like at least some people here take it seriously.
One more thing to take into account before even getting into the air.