A380 video analysis

Ash @ DroningON · Jul 28, 2018

Interesting thread and hopefully a few key facts discussed here came from my analysis video, posted a day before, which highlight that this footage is old based on the sugar cane field growth.

You can see my full analysis videos here which reveal lots of facts to the skeptics!

Underdog1964 · Jul 28, 2018

Hi Ash. Enjoyed your segment on TNL with Ken Heron.

Nice analysis of the footage!

sar104 · Jul 28, 2018

Ash @ DroningON said:
Interesting thread and hopefully a few key facts discussed here came from my analysis video, posted a day before, which highlight that this footage is old based on the sugar cane field growth.

You can see my full analysis videos here which reveal lots of facts to the skeptics!

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The comments from a resident on the sugar cane on your first video were what prompted me to compare with the historical GE imagery. I was surprised to find suitable images to make the correlation - that was purely fortuitous.

Having some time to kill yesterday I also compared all EK702 / EK703 flight pairs to narrow down the days when 703 landed just before 702 took off. Further narrowing by takeoff point on the runway and climb out ground speed, there appear to be just two possible dates for the video. I would guess that LE in Mauritius, if they are taking this seriously, are finding it pretty easy to figure out.

gnirtS · Jul 28, 2018

I guess it was likely a visiting tourist filming it. That entire area consists of hotels and resorts. So unless the original video was traced initially its going to be impossible to catch the person.

sar104 · Jul 28, 2018

gnirtS said:
I guess it was likely a visiting tourist filming it. That entire area consists of hotels and resorts. So unless the original video was traced initially its going to be impossible to catch the person.

That's certainly a possibility, but I would guess that whoever took that spent some time over several days scoping it out to be at the correct altitude and position for that particular aircraft.

timinator · Jul 28, 2018

sar104 said:
That's certainly a possibility, but I would guess that whoever took that spent some time over several days scoping it out to be at the correct altitude and position for that particular aircraft.

Thinking further, it is actually pretty easy to compare the previous flight tracks if you have a FlightRadar subscription. That will tell you pretty accurately the altitude and position for previous flights. Knowing that, you can be pretty confident in projecting future flight paths in that particular situation.

sar104 · Jul 28, 2018

timinator said:
Thinking further, it is actually pretty easy to compare the previous flight tracks if you have a FlightRadar subscription. That will tell you pretty accurately the altitude and position for previous flights. Knowing that, you can be pretty confident in projecting future flight paths in that particular situation.

Maybe. Those are the data that I've been looking at to work out which days 703 landed just a minute or two before 702 took off. The flight data are good but the temporal resolution is not great, and I don't think they are good enough to have got that right first time.

Ash @ DroningON · Jul 28, 2018

Underdog1964 said:
Hi Ash. Enjoyed your segment on TNL with Ken Heron.
Nice analysis of the footage!

Thanks dude, it was great being on the show, it's just a shame that our timezones are so incompatible for streams like that!

Underdog1964 · Jul 28, 2018

Ash @ DroningON said:
Thanks dude, it was great being on the show, it's just a shame that our timezones are so incompatible for streams like that!

Yeah, I felt for you on the time zone!

timinator · Jul 28, 2018

I was thinking more in terms of knowing what altitude the aircraft would reach at the the given location considering it wlll fly the runway heading until they reach a given altitude. I know for me when I see traffic over my house they are always about 5000 feet because that is when they can turn off the runway heading.

Unless the aircraft is ferrying out, with a normal payload it is going to be close to the same altitude in that location.

Have to admit it was a nice video. I never had the chance to work the A380 and I've only flown on it once but it is a great aircraft to fly on.

gnirtS · Jul 28, 2018

A380 is my favourite aircraft as a passenger for long haul flights. The extra seat width, big windows, generally modern interior,quiet cabin,wifi and IFE. (Plus airlines like Emirates, Etihad etc have fantastic cabin service). If i dont HAVE to travel on a specific day i'll often schedule it so i can use a 380 by choice. Second choice would be A350 for similar reasons although they're not quite as nice.
I'll reschedule, rebook and change days to avoid having to go anywhere on a 777 or even worse 767-ER types as dismal doesnt even begin to describe 10+ hours in those!

timinator · Jul 29, 2018

I do like the 767-300 for the 2x4x2 config. I'll do what I can to avoid the 777 since that is just a slave ship and I've had too many bad experiences that was before most carriers went 10 across for seating. Looking forward to trying the A350 but don't think I will have a chance to fly on it anytime soon unless I am ex HKG, MNL, or SIN.

sar104 · Jul 29, 2018

timinator said:
I was thinking more in terms of knowing what altitude the aircraft would reach at the the given location considering it wlll fly the runway heading until they reach a given altitude. I know for me when I see traffic over my house they are always about 5000 feet because that is when they can turn off the runway heading.

Unless the aircraft is ferrying out, with a normal payload it is going to be close to the same altitude in that location.

Have to admit it was a nice video. I never had the chance to work the A380 and I've only flown on it once but it is a great aircraft to fly on.

Maybe. Again - there is not very good time resolution on the altitude data and it's climbing steeply at that point. I'm sure it would be good enough for a first attempt though. And maybe he got lucky. I did notice that most of the flights climbed out straight for a couple more km before turning north, but a couple of them at least turned north earlier - almost right where the drone was hovering. That could have ended badly.

timinator · Jul 29, 2018

sar104 said:
Maybe. Again - there is not very good time resolution on the altitude data and it's climbing steeply at that point. I'm sure it would be good enough for a first attempt though. And maybe he got lucky. I did notice that most of the flights climbed out straight for a couple more km before turning north, but a couple of them at least turned north earlier - almost right where the drone was hovering. That could have ended badly.

Indeed, especially for the Mavic. Depending on where it struck the aircraft, the crew might not even know until they reach their destination and do the post flight walk around.

sar104 · Jul 29, 2018

timinator said:
Indeed, especially for the Mavic. Depending on where it struck the aircraft, the crew might not even know until they reach their destination and do the post flight walk around.

True. But the more vulnerable areas, such as dome, cockpit, wing leading edges and control surfaces, engines etc., represent a large fraction of the total cross-section.

sjnovakovich · Jul 30, 2018

SAR is an excellent mathematician, and possibly his profession is doing some type of research.

Tridiver · Jul 30, 2018

Sar, impressive and....you got too much time on your hands. I hope you're not the prosecutor in any case I hopefully won't have!! I can see you walking around a court room with your laser pointer and projections!!

sar104 · Jul 30, 2018

sjnovakovich said:
SAR is an excellent mathematician, and possibly his profession is doing some type of research.

Thanks for the compliment - you were close; physicist.

Tridiver said:
Sar, impressive and....you got too much time on your hands. I hope you're not the prosecutor in any case I hopefully won't have!! I can see you walking around a court room with your laser pointer and projections!!

Less time than I need. I just have something of an addiction for puzzles and teasing stuff out of obscure sets of data. Luckily that's my job too. I spend plenty of time with presentations and laser pointers, but not in the courtroom. You guys are all quite safe.

sjnovakovich · Jul 31, 2018

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SAR is an excellent mathematician, and possibly his profession is doing some type of research.

Thanks for the compliment - you were close; physicist.

Actually, physicist was my first guess, but there are few of them compared to mathematicians, so that's what I chose. All of your analysis took me straight back to my physics class!