Has the drone industry reached stagnation ??

[Montana John]

Regarding a test for hobby level pilots - I think that implementing such a test in a meaningful way is impossible.
1. The FAA is not presently an enforcement oriented organization like a police department. And they lack the personnel to become one. No one is going to go around searching out widely dispersed drone pilots and asking for proof of passing a test.
2. What kind of test? If a person can take it at home, on-line, it is valueless, there being no test security. The alternative would be to set up test centers, as is done for the Sec. 107 test. The cost in time and money to accomplish this is far beyond its value to the community. If a fee to cover the service is charged, people will just ignore the test, knowing the situation explained in item 1 above.

I would be very interested to know how many 107 pilots ever break the rules, and how many have ever faced any kind of sanction by the FAA. My thought is that the answer to the first part is "close to 100%", and to the second part, "close to zero." Does anyone have any data on application of FAA sanctions? I haven't found any on the FAA sites, though I did not dig too deeply.

 

[Mavic-Master88]

From my prospective as a Commercial Drone Pilot - a decline in hobbyists and the perception of slow release of 'the-next-innovation' has no effect on me. The majority of flights that I do are 107 missions with either my Mavic Pro or my Phantom 3 4K which are both stable, reliable and produce a quality image.
I have spent many years as a photographer and videographer and I see drones as simply a means of positioning a camera into a new range of locations - a really tall tripod or crane or dolly.

That's all fine and dandy --- but the real killer app for drones is not aerial photography but delivery. Aerial photography will always have it's place but once drones get authorized for delivery purposes and increase in size to accomodate larger payloads, that is when everyone will consider a drone a "must-have" item. Most likely within 20 years it will not be unusual to hear this being spoken in any household:

"Hey drone --- follow the kids to school to make sure they arrive safely and then drop off the puppy at doggie daycare --- then on the way home pick up a pint of cranberry juice and tuna salad sandwich"

 

[Johnmcl7]

The small size and portability of the Mavic is nice --- but there are still many innovations to be had with consumer drones --- 8K camera sensors --- 10X-20X optical zoom --- thermal and night vision capability --- FPV + controlling the drone over the cellular networks for vastly improved non-LOS flying --- various delivery mechanisms such as winches, drop devices, etc

Most of these are not even remotely viable or have questionable use for consumers, there's no consumer camera not even high end FF cameras that currently offer 8K video so it's not at all reasonable for a consumer drone at the moment. Perhaps in a few years when there's a variety of 8K devices out there to view on as well but I suspect the hardware requirements and storage will mean 4K or even still 1080p remain the standard. I'm not saying there's no point in 8K but that's for high end professional drones.

Size and weight is generally key for drones particularly smaller models like the Mavic series, a long range 10x-20x optical zoom lens is going to add a noticeable amount of bulk, significant complexity on a fragile part and likely reduce the image quality.

If you want thermal capability there is already a Mavic for that which is not a consumer model for good reason and is sold as an enterprise product.

Given flying outwith VLOS is illegal for non-professionals in many major countries, adding the capability to go even further beyond the Mavic's already decent range makes absolutely no sense. Using a cellular network which can be unreliable with high latency makes even less sense over a dedicated high performance point to point connection.

Delivery mechanisms also make no sense whatsoever for consumer devices.

The fact you can't name even one remotely viable addition to consumer drones suggest that DJI are doing a very good job with their drones already. They did an impressive job the amount of tech they packed into the Mavic 1 despite it being their first proper small model and while the Mavic 2 brings some solid improvements which make it a better drone overall but they're still mainly incremental.

I think there's still a lot of potential further down the market and once DJI can produce a drone similar to the Spark at around the £200 to £300 price point with a high level of automation, they're likely to expand the market significantly.

 

[DoomMeister]

That's all fine and dandy --- but the real killer app for drones is not aerial photography but delivery. Aerial photography will always have it's place but once drones get authorized for delivery purposes and increase in size to accomodate larger payloads, that is when everyone will consider a drone a "must-have" item. Most likely within 20 years it will not be unusual to hear this being spoken in any household:

"Hey drone --- follow the kids to school to make sure they arrive safely and then drop off the puppy at doggie daycare --- then on the way home pick up a pint of cranberry juice and tuna salad sandwich"

Something that could be accomplished much more economically with an autonomous automobile or robot as well as safer as it won’t be flying over person and property. Multirotor aircraft are not efficient as cargo carriers, but do work as photo video platforms to “get the shot” without using larger manned aircraft or scaffolding, tracks, or cable runs.

Gaining use of BVLOS in UAS’es for SAR and Emergency Management would be beneficial, especially if they could carry rescue packages and have FPV for the pilot and a secondary camera with FLIR and zoom controlled by a spotter. Time critical medical transport of organs or medicines also makes sense, but a bunch of autonomous blenders to deliver snacks and carry your Prime order of the day is just a way for big business to take over the airspace and make bigger bucks doing it.

 

[Deleted member 93449]

I think the big movement in drones will be the commercial market. Government regulations will push most hobbies out. That can be viewed as a bad thing but on the other had given the growing, enhanced capabilities of these "toy" drones and the shared airspace they operate in those that aren't serious enough about the responsibility that goes with sharing that airspace to get a recreational license should probably find another hobby. It's going to be interesting to see what happens when the recreational pilots license test comes online and how many people will take the plunge.

 

[Yalone]

It’s been less than a year since the m2p and m2z were released...........

I would expect DJIs next drone release to come next year.

Seems that all techies expect all tech companies to follow apples model and release a new product every year. Most of us are still learning all of the capabilities of the M2.

Hey, I'm still learning all the nitty gritty thing about the Mavic Pro and I've owned it for near on two years!

 

[Mavic-Master88]

Most of these are not even remotely viable or have questionable use for consumers, there's no consumer camera not even high end FF cameras that currently offer 8K video so it's not at all reasonable for a consumer drone at the moment. Perhaps in a few years when there's a variety of 8K devices out there to view on as well but I suspect the hardware requirements and storage will mean 4K or even still 1080p remain the standard. I'm not saying there's no point in 8K but that's for high end professional drones.

Size and weight is generally key for drones particularly smaller models like the Mavic series, a long range 10x-20x optical zoom lens is going to add a noticeable amount of bulk, significant complexity on a fragile part and likely reduce the image quality.

If you want thermal capability there is already a Mavic for that which is not a consumer model for good reason and is sold as an enterprise product.

Given flying outwith VLOS is illegal for non-professionals in many major countries, adding the capability to go even further beyond the Mavic's already decent range makes absolutely no sense. Using a cellular network which can be unreliable with high latency makes even less sense over a dedicated high performance point to point connection.

Delivery mechanisms also make no sense whatsoever for consumer devices.

The fact you can't name even one remotely viable addition to consumer drones suggest that DJI are doing a very good job with their drones already. They did an impressive job the amount of tech they packed into the Mavic 1 despite it being their first proper small model and while the Mavic 2 brings some solid improvements which make it a better drone overall but they're still mainly incremental.

I think there's still a lot of potential further down the market and once DJI can produce a drone similar to the Spark at around the £200 to £300 price point with a high level of automation, they're likely to expand the market significantly.

I always chuckle when I see a post like this --- because these kinds of posts are proven wrong time and time again by historical facts. You are the same type of person writing in 1975 that personal computers will never be viable because current computers cost $1 million and are big as a house. Then in 1987 you claim cell phones would always be a niche item for only the wealthy professionals because the battery packs are 10 lbs. and it costs $5 per minute for service. Then again in 2007 you claim 4K TV's and cameras would be a long way off because they are just too expensive for consumer use.

Trust me --- within 2-3 years consumers drones will have 8K cameras and 10X zooms, and it won't be exorbitantly expensive. Not saying the 8K image sensor will be professional grade, but it will exist. 10X-20X zoom will only add marginal weight --- if many compact digital cameras already exist that weigh less than a pound and offer 20X optical zoom --- there is no great challenge to adding this capability to a consumer drone.

"Delivery mechanisms make no sense whatsoever for consumer devices" --- pretty much one of the dumbest things I ever heard. I aint talking about delivering 400-lb. refrigerators with a consumer drone --- but carrying a 5-oz. bottle of your Grandma's heart medication over the 3 miles of forest between you and her house is VERY feasible with current consumer drones. I could literally list HUNDREDS of other applications for such a consumer delivery drone, and they are all very useful applications.

Non-LOS control and FPV will be the biggest challenge for consumer drones mainly because the govt. doesn't want us flying beyond LOS, which is like 1000 feet for practical purposes. With 5G already being deployed in many cities in 2019, there certainly is no technical barrier to consumer drones being controlled over the cellular networks. But for the forseeable future, the govt. will make sure only the commercial operators will get this paradigm-shifting method of controlling drones with 4K live FPV in challenging terrain and urban environments.

I'm trying to be awfully polite here --- but you make very little sense when you say things like "you can't name one viable addition to consumer drones" and yet I just spent several posts in this thread giving you very important and much-desired innovations that will be economically feasible within 2-3 years on affordable drones --- it almost seems you don't know how technological progress works?

 

[Mavic-Master88]

Something that could be accomplished much more economically with an autonomous automobile or robot as well as safer as it won’t be flying over person and property. Multirotor aircraft are not efficient as cargo carriers, but do work as photo video platforms to “get the shot” without using larger manned aircraft or scaffolding, tracks, or cable runs.

Gaining use of BVLOS in UAS’es for SAR and Emergency Management would be beneficial, especially if they could carry rescue packages and have FPV for the pilot and a secondary camera with FLIR and zoom controlled by a spotter. Time critical medical transport of organs or medicines also makes sense, but a bunch of autonomous blenders to deliver snacks and carry your Prime order of the day is just a way for big business to take over the airspace and make bigger bucks doing it.

Economic viability of drone delivery basically comes down to weight --- most people would have no problem paying Amazon a $5 or $10 surcharge for 30-minute drone delivery of the latest DVD movie or iPhone. However, I can't see how a 30-pound microwave is going to be delivered by drone unless the drone has 25 large motors and weights in excess of 150 lbs? Hate to see the delivery surcharge on that. Luckily, there are millions of Amazon items that weight less than 2 lbs. and be easily delivered by a small electric drone.

 

[gottahavit]

Economic viability of drone delivery basically comes down to weight --- most people would have no problem paying Amazon a $5 or $10 surcharge for 30-minute drone delivery of the latest DVD movie or iPhone. However, I can't see how a 30-pound microwave is going to be delivered by drone unless the drone has 25 large motors and weights in excess of 150 lbs? Hate to see the delivery surcharge on that. Luckily, there are millions of Amazon items that weight less than 2 lbs. and be easily delivered by a small electric drone.

or you can just used pre-order today and have them in your mailbox the day they are released, no drones required ;-)

humor aside, maybe it's because I live in a rural area, but I just don't see how drone delivery outside commercial use is ever effective, unless battery tech increases dramatically.

 

[Mavic-Master88]

or you can just used pre-order today and have them in your mailbox the day they are released, no drones required ;-)

humor aside, maybe it's because I live in a rural area, but I just don't see how drone delivery outside commercial use is ever effective, unless battery tech increases dramatically.

I think too many people have this "all or nothing" approach to drone delivery --- they assume that if a consumer drone can't deliver a refrigerator or BBQ grille through the air, then drone delivery will never have any use at all to the common folk.

I have a vivid imagination and have also seen tech-naysayers proved wrong many times in the past, so that's why I'm such a big advocate of drone delivery. It's very easy to be close-minded about tech --- if you asked 100 people on the street in 1983 if they would ever need a mobile telephone, 99 would look at you funny and respond --- "Absolutely not, if I ever need to make a phone call then I can do it from home, office, or use one of the many pay-phones around town". They can only see the future as far as their elbow.

I can name two examples from my personal life in the past few months where drone delivery would be very beneficial. Back in February, my sister's 6-month old daughter was running a fever and she had no Children's Tylenol in the house. So at 11pm, she had to climb into a cold car, put the baby in the back seat, and drive to the 24-hour Walgreen's to get the medicine. How nice if she could simply login to her Walgreen's account in the warm comfort of her house and order up a small bottle of Children's Tylenol to be delivered by drone in 30 minutes or less! My Dad lives in a rural area with no broadband so he can't watch streaming movies like Netflix, so he relies on DVD rental kiosks like Redbox. How nice if he could avoid the hassle of driving back to the kiosk and interrupting his NFL watching at home on a Sunday afternoon but instead log in to his Redbox app and 15 minutes later a drone lands in his driveway to pick up his DVDs? These are just two simple examples of how useful drone delivery can be --- there are literally hundreds of other useful scenarios if you think about it.

 

[Mr. Salty]

Luckily, there are millions of Amazon items that weight less than 2 lbs. and be easily delivered by a small electric drone.

The problems remain the viable distance to and from the warehouse as well as a clear area to lower the package to.

For the foreseeable future I don't think drone delivery will be much more than a niche service or publicity stunt.

 

[Mavic-Master88]

The problems remain the viable distance to and from the warehouse as well as a clear area to lower the package to.

For the foreseeable future I don't think drone delivery will be much more than a niche service or publicity stunt.

Amazon is constantly building new warehouses --- they built 3 new ones here in Pittsburgh in the last two years. Plus, I think they are adopting the "Uber-ization" model and will start using independent storage facilities as they build out their own delivery network. Amazon is having a tough time finding enough delivery drivers for their last-mile service, so if they can start using more local distribution hubs then drivers can greatly reduce the total amount of miles needed to deliver all the packages on their route, and this will attract new drivers to sign up for routes. The increased number of hubs will make it more likely a drone can deliver your sub-3 pound package within 30 minutes.

I think the Amazon Locker idea will also spread and this will eliminate the problem of some people not having a suitable property for a drone to air-drop a package. If your entire property is wooded or in a no-fly zone, then you simply have your Amazon drone delivery air-dropped to a neighbor down the road who has a big open backyard and you go there and retrieve your package from an Amazon Locker installed at the end of their driveway. Your neighbor makes money acting as an Amazon Locker service location and you get the convenience of a rapid Amazon drone-delivery and your package kept in a dry and secure Locker. It's a win-win for everyone involved.

 

[kensteele]

Given flying outwith VLOS is illegal for non-professionals in many major countries, adding the capability to go even further beyond the Mavic's already decent range makes absolutely no sense.

exactly a good example why government regulation is hurting innovation. why build a significantly beyond-vlos and related capabilities drone as long there's a government regulation in place that won't change anytime soon? if tomorrow the government changed to up to 9 miles only, the next mavic 3+ pro would have a 9+ miles range and a whole host of incredible features. all the government rules are hurting growth just like it has done in the airline industry.

 

[BigAl07]

exactly a good example why government regulation is hurting innovation. why build a significantly beyond-vlos and related capabilities drone as long there's a government regulation in place that won't change anytime soon? if tomorrow the government changed to up to 9 miles only, the next mavic 3+ pro would have a 9+ miles range and a whole host of incredible features. all the government rules are hurting growth just like it has done in the airline industry.

That's not how this works. DJI is advancing their products as quickly as size, weight, and cost allow not within existing regulations.

Remember DJI is an INTERNATIONAL company and they build technology that can be used in some areas with no regulations as well as can be operated "within" some strict regulations in the rest of the world. Just because a company sells a car that CAN go 130mph should we not have speed limits?

 

[kensteele]

That's not how this works. DJI is advancing their products as quickly as size, weight, and cost allow not within existing regulations.

Remember DJI is an INTERNATIONAL company and they build technology that can be used in some areas with no regulations as well as can be operated "within" some strict regulations in the rest of the world. Just because a company sells a car that CAN go 130mph should we not have speed limits?

i really hope so. but you bring up a good example of another industry that has been ravaged by government regulation and innovation has clearly been stunted. sometimes all it takes is one country to lead and for drones, it's going to be america. if we can lift the rules and regulations, the industry would soar...literally.

 

[Meta4]

if we can lift the rules and regulations, the industry would soar...literally.

There must have been a reason for rules and regulations in the first place.
Umm ... what was it ?
That's right ... to maintain a safe aviation environment.
And you want to drop rules and regulations?

 

[kensteele]

There must have been a reason for rules and regulations in the first place.
Umm ... what was it ?
That's right ... to maintain a safe aviation environment.
And you want to drop rules and regulations?

not all of them, just most of them.

to keep us safe, we only need a few good rules and regulation. not hundreds, not thousands.

absolutely the reason for rules and regulations is to keep safe but something tells me they've thrown in keep under control and dissuade and infringe in there as well. how about we just keep the safe ones and throw out the rest? or at least loosen them so the american spirit can breathe?

 

[skiptv]

actually it’s not only reached stagnation it’s in retrograde. Number of 107 pilots taking their 2nd year retest is hovering around 30%. Except for toys under $50 bucks or so. Drone sales like DJI Mavics are way down. New pilots taking test are down to dozens instead of 1000s. Drone start ups that popped up 3,4,5 years ago are mostly gone. There are over 400,000 registered drones in the USA. You guys are drone pilots here I’m sure you noticed that you don’t see people flying at the beach or park or down your street anymore. A million drones have been sold. Like the hover boards, before them they now sit in closets broken, from the idiots who didn’t learn how to fly them or boxed up from guys who thought they were going to start a drone business. When most of them never started their own business in their lives. I say great. Lee’s idiots ruining it for the rest of us, and less competition in business from guys who whored their rates out and ruined it for the rest of us. So please if you’re not making money. Or your not having fun anymore or you hate all the new gov rules. Please go ahead and put your drone in your closet next to your hover board, and in-line skates

 

[kensteele]

actually it’s not only reached stagnation it’s in retrograde. Number of 107 pilots taking their 2nd year retest is hovering around 30%. Except for toys under $50 bucks or so. Drone sales like DJI Mavics are way down. New pilots taking test are down to dozens instead of 1000s. Drone start ups that popped up 3,4,5 years ago are mostly gone. There are over 400,000 registered drones in the USA. You guys are drone pilots here I’m sure you noticed that you don’t see people flying at the beach or park or down your street anymore. A million drones have been sold. Like the hover boards, before them they now sit in closets broken, from the idiots who didn’t learn how to fly them or boxed up from guys who thought they were going to start a drone business. When most of them never started their own business in their lives. I say great. Lee’s idiots ruining it for the rest of us, and less competition in business from guys who whored their rates out and ruined it for the rest of us. So please if you’re not making money. Or your not having fun anymore or you hate all the new gov rules. Please go ahead and put your drone in your closet next to your hover board, and in-line skates

without them the consumer drone industry will go nowhere fast. the manufacturers can't rely on a handful of us to carry the day. well, they could but it would be a lot faster and a lot cheaper if we could figure out a way to get those million+ people on board. i can tell you one way that won't happen: increase regulations and fees. i'd rather not pay $2,000 per drone for the rest of my life.

now i'm beginning to see that trump was right. all those rules and regulations end up hurting all americans. i know you say those new drone businesses flopping was due to incompetency and wishful thinking but isn't that what america is all about, the opportunity to start a business even if you have no clue how to do it or have to stumble your way thru as long as you're honest and follow the rules? how can they succeed with a mountain of rules and regulations requiring expensive lawyers and accountants. more than just the occasional startup is getting hurt. combine that with the negativity around drones, no wonder.

 

[STKNRUD]

I know this is a drone forum but all the drone laws now apply to sUAVs which includes your RC planes, park flyers and Helios. Unless the AMA can get an exemption for these types of sUAVs flying from fixed sites, that hobby will be destroyed IMO. It has been on the decline for years but many will throw in the towel if they now have to take a test to do what has been extraordinarily safe for the past 70 years. As a side note, don’t think it won’t also effect recreational drone flyers as well. Name another “recreational” hobby that has prospered that requires a knowledge test, license/registration and God knows what kind of equipment that might become required in the future and is regulated by government and law enforcement agencies. And then consider the limitations on flying over virtually anything besides desert and farm land.