Has the drone industry reached stagnation ??

[ShawnWhite]

That's just a guess but there's nothing to support it except you have a feeling it could go that way.
It's interesting that you are so skeptical about the viability of private drone flying but not at all skeptical about the fantasy of widespread drone deliveries.

Well it's a guess based on an understanding of how business and government operate. It's not that far fetched. Air waves were unregulated until radio and tv stations took them over.

 

[modbuilder]

Number of 107 pilots taking their 2nd year retest is hovering around 30%. ... New pilots taking test are down to dozens instead of 1000s. Drone start ups that popped up 3,4,5 years ago are mostly gone.

Interesting numbers. Would like to know the source so I can get the data first-hand instead of via forum post. Thanks.............. R

 

[Meta4]

There are over 400,000 registered drones in the USA.

Interesting numbers. Would like to know the source so I can get the data first-hand instead of via forum post.

It's correct that there are 400,000 registered drones in the USA, but the number is a lot more than 400000.
1.5 years ago the FAA announced their drone registration had topped 1000000. FAA Drone Registry Tops One Million.
The 1,000,000 total registration figure includes 878,000 hobbyists, who receive one identification number for all the drones they own, and 122,000 commercial, public and other drones, which are individually registered.
That's before a single Mavic 2 had been sold.
A more recent FAA paper says: With the continuing registration, more than 900,000 owners had already registered with the FAA by Sept. 2018. Monthly owner registration averaged around 8,000-9,000 during Jan.-Dec., 2018
With over 900,000 modelers registered as of December 31, 2018, we estimate that there are around 1.25 million drones distinctly identified as model aircraft.
... Comparing with industry sales and other data noted above, we conclude that model aircraft is almost 40 percent higher than ownership registration.
A comparison of last year’s data with this year’s (2018) shows that the annual growth rate to be around 13 percent.
This continues to be substantial growth as anticipated .

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/media/unmanned_aircraft_systems.pdf

Less idiots ruining it for the rest of us, and less competition in business from guys who whored their rates out and ruined it for the rest of us.

That optimism is probably not justified.
Drones are cheap and abundant.
In my part of the world I used to make reliable money from real estate shoots but it's more than two years since any of the agents I worked with have called.

 

[modbuilder]

am especially interested in the 30% retest, and the decline in new pilots taking the test.

 

[Meta4]

i can tell you one way that won't happen: increase regulations and fees. i'd rather not pay $2,000 per drone for the rest of my life.

Where did $2000 per drone come from?
Why not make it a million dollars since you're making stuff up?
The problems you are wrestling with are problems you are imagining.
Life is a lot simpler when you only worry about things that are real.

isn't that what america is all about, the opportunity to start a business even if you have no clue how to do it or have to stumble your way thru as long as you're honest and follow the rules?

Unbelievable

 

[DroningOn]

The 1,000,000 total registration figure includes 878,000 hobbyists, who receive one identification number for all the drones they own, and 122,000 commercial, public and other drones, which are individually registered.

I would love someone to do a FOIA request to force the FAA/DOT to back up those numbers with hard data. I don’t believe the hobbyist number for a second!

 

[Meta4]

I would love someone to do a FOIA request to force the FAA/DOT to back up those numbers with hard data. I don’t believe the hobbyist number for a second!

What reason would they have for giving a false number?
The actual number of owners is going to be higher since they only have numbers for those that have registered.

 

[Meta4]

The recurring theme of doom for drone flying intrigues me.
I can't understand where it comes from.
It seems to be completely imaginary and unrelated to anything real.
I've noticed forum posts prediction the end of recreational drone flying ever since recreational drone flying started.
Despite the forecasts of impending doom, there's still no evidence to indicate it's going to happen.

The phenomenon reminds me of an old Australian bush poem .....

Said Hanrahan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DroningOn]

What reason would they have for giving a false number?
The actual number of owners is going to be higher since they only have numbers for those that have registered.

Admittedly pure speculation on my part but I think the biggest reason (among others) is to downplay the abject failure of drone registration in general. Seriously, outside of sites such as this one, a few YouTube videos and some press releases how do people even find out that they “must” register themselves?? Combine this with ZERO enforcement and I think we’re talking about single digit % of drone owners have gone through the process. IF that’s true, that registration number is grossly inflated.
.......A FOIA request would answer all of this

 

[Meta4]

Admittedly pure speculation on my part but I think the biggest reason (among others) is to downplay the abject failure of drone registration in general. Seriously, outside of sites such as this one, a few YouTube videos and some press releases how do people even find out that they “must” register themselves?? Combine this with ZERO enforcement and I think we’re talking about single digit % of drone owners have gone through the process. IF that’s true, that registration number is grossly inflated.
.......A FOIA request would answer all of this

An FOI request can only get the actual numbers the FAA has and won't provide any clue as to how many drone owners have not registered.
I can't see that there would be any reason for the FAA to under or over report the number of registrations processed.
It's just a number and whether it's higher or lower wouldn't make any difference to them.

 

[DroningOn]

An FOI request can only get the actual numbers the FAA has and won't provide any clue as to how many drone owners have not registered.
I can't see that there would be any reason for the FAA to under or over report the number of registrations processed.
It's just a number and whether it's higher or lower wouldn't make any difference to them.

I just want the “actual number”. I don’t believe the number they’re giving is correct.
As for a reason they’d over report, I gave you one.

 

[Meta4]

I just want the “actual number”. I don’t believe the number they’re giving is correct.

They gave the only number they had.
The FAA has no idea how many unregistered owners are out there.
No-one cane give you that number.

As for a reason they’d over report, I gave you one.

You said something but it didn't explain why the FAA would have any motivation to misreport the number of registrations they have processed.
Their number does nothing to show any kind of failure.
It wouldn't matter what number they gave, you'd still distrust it.

 

[Pappy]

Here's my take on why no new drones this year from DJI -

1. Resources focused on non-drone products, action cam, osmo pocket, etc.
2. Good money can be made off of commercial/enterprise drones or services - Storm drone (only service can be purchased, not the drone), DJI Drones - Product Solutions for Your Business - DJI
3. Current consumer/prosumer sales are meeting expectations.
4. Adding/redesigning consumer drones for ADS-B to be included by 2020 (ADS-B Receivers In Consumer-Grade Drones Will Set A New Standard In Drone Safety).

 

[Reelman67]

Based on my own personal experience, it seems consumer drones have hit a stagnation point. I used to see customers in Best Buy flocking to the drone aisle and drooling over the newest Phantom or Mavic models released. So far this year, I never see any customers in that aisle. No new DJI models for 2019 probably reflects declining consumer interest.

Same applies to the local parks. From 2014 to 2018 I saw lots of folks flying their drones at public parks. This year I havent seen one. Makes you wonder if the hobby is declining.

Most communities have banned drones from public parks. Such is the case where I live. Could be the reason.

 

[kensteele]

Where did $2000 per drone come from?

the rise in price of the mavic pro series over the years when more technology is added to accomodate the new regulations plus the swatch of recreational drones flyer that were told to get lost followed by tariffs. even a 5th grader can see that price increase coming. $2k might be a little low. million dollars is way to high, that a ridiculous guess, not sure where you pulled that one out from.

the drone industry is going stagnate and you know it; you just like to argue.

drone christmas has come and gone.

 

[DroningOn]

They gave the only number they had.

And I don’t believe them

Thee FAA has no idea how many unregistered owners are out there

I never said that I was asking them that

Their number does nothing to show any kind of failure.

It does if the number they’ve been giving is not correct

It wouldn't matter what number they gave, you'd still distrust it

Hence the FOIA

 

[Meta4]

And I don’t believe them
..
Hence the FOIA

I'll try again.
What possible reason would the FAA have for misreporting the number of registrations they've processed?

 

[Meta4]

$2k might be a little low. million dollars is way to high, that a ridiculous guess, not sure where you pulled that one out from.

Sorry about that .. in your post it looked like you were talking about registration fees etc rather than purchase price.

the drone industry is going stagnate and you know it; you just like to argue.

The FAA does not agree with you on that.
They are predicting drone use to continue to increase:

The FAA says the commercial drone market could triple in size by 2023

But the demand for hobby drones appears to be slowing

www.theverge.com

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/media/unmanned_aircraft_systems.pdf

 

[kensteele]

Sorry about that .. in your post it looked like you were talking about registration fees etc rather than purchase price.

The FAA does not agree with you on that.
They are predicting drone use to continue to increase:

yeah sorry about that too. i meant the recreational drone industry about to become stale. it's ok now but i think it will eventually slow down and lack the innovation it deserves. but yes i agree, the commercial drone industry (particularly cargo and deliveries) and military use of drones, they're gonna be pretty big if they can get their 2nd wind.

 

[DroningOn]

I'll try again.
What possible reason would the FAA have for misreporting the number of registrations they've processed?

Asked and answered in #69.