Here is it...HOW AMAZON WILL DELIVER...

[Bob4131]

I'd be amazed if it costs less for drone delivery than by normal road delivery.

There are cost comparisons showing the local delivery cost goes from $1.50/package today to $0.40 via drone - one study but several have similar conclusions - this is just the delivery from the distribution center. However, there are a ton of assumptions that may not be true. The biggest to me is if they will be able to fly in bad weather. If they have to keep trucks / delivery drivers on standby, then any cost savings seem hard to justify.

 

[maelstrom]

There are cost comparisons showing the local delivery cost goes from $1.50/package today to $0.40 via drone

But does that include the cost of all the hardware required to run the service? I can’t see Amazon running at a loss just to make a statement about technology.

 

[Bob4131]

But does that include the cost of all the hardware required to run the service? I can’t see Amazon running at a loss just to make a statement about technology.

Yes, the estimates include the cost of all hardware, software, and the people to fly, etc. But as I said, the assumptions may not turn out to be valid.

 

[Richiebricker]

So guys, welcome to the future...

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Not so scary with soft music until u realize those small drones are the size and shape of a barbecue and have 18 inch blades

 

[Richiebricker]

But does that include the cost of all the hardware required to run the service? I can’t see Amazon running at a loss just to make a statement about technology.

Amazon is not allowed to loose money because we give them tax (welfare) refunds while they pay no taxes

 

[maelstrom]

Yes, the estimates include the cost of all hardware, software, and the people to fly, etc. But as I said, the assumptions may not turn out to be valid.

I'm not doubting you, but I'm still not convinced. They'll have to restrict drone delivery to a limited number of areas or they'd need new distribution centres everywhere to allow for the short range of the drones. Shipping the parcels to a local distribution centre would surely take most of the time so it's difficult to see how much you'd gain over the standard next-day delivery. I'd love to see the business case for this - I just can't see how you could justify it other than as a marketing gimmick. One drone, one (small) parcel. One van, tens/hundreds of parcels including very large, heavy ones.

 

[Bob4131]

I'm not doubting you, but I'm still not convinced. They'll have to restrict drone delivery to a limited number of areas or they'd need new distribution centres everywhere to allow for the short range of the drones. Shipping the parcels to a local distribution centre would surely take most of the time so it's difficult to see how much you'd gain over the standard next-day delivery. I'd love to see the business case for this - I just can't see how you could justify it other than as a marketing gimmick. One drone, one (small) parcel. One van, tens/hundreds of parcels including very large, heavy ones.

The studies I have seen assume only packages < 5 pounds, which is 85% of Amazon deliveries.
As I said, the goal is not to save a day but to reduce costs.Today a truck leaves the distribution center with 150 packages and may be gone 8-10 hours delivering them. In the drone model, you might replace the truck with 10 drones - but your delivery might be on the 15th drone flight that day and therefore late afternoon.
Today the Matternet drones being used by hospitals in NC and CVS (operated by UPS), have a range of 25+ miles so they can deliver to a 12 mile radius. It is easy to see that range double in a few years due to battery improvements. The typical suburban housing density around most US cities means one centrally located center could easily service a city / suburb of 2 million people. Today Amazon often has distribution centers for 1 million people regions. The US currently has over 50% of it population in suburbs and another 25% in urban areas. So distance to the central distribution center is not an issue for almost 80% of the US population for Amazon or UPS.
Amazon has plans for trucks carrying drones in more rural areas. The idea being a truck drives down a major highway, stops every 10 miles to release ~10 drones to the surrounding homes. Waits for their return, goes 10 miles and repeats. It would be much faster than needing to drive back roads where each delivery is 5 miles from the last one.
But there are issues: Can the package be put out of the rain? What happens on bad weather days? Exactly how many drones can be monitored by one operator simultaneously (3, 30, 100)? Will cities be OK with hundreds of drones flying overhead - I expect some cities / states to put up roadblocks even if the FAA is ok with it.

 

[maelstrom]

The idea being a truck drives down a major highway, stops every 10 miles to release ~10 drones to the surrounding homes. Waits for their return, goes 10 miles and repeats. It would be much faster than needing to drive back roads where each delivery is 5 miles from the last one.

But there are issues: Can the package be put out of the rain? What happens on bad weather days? Exactly how many drones can be monitored by one operator simultaneously (3, 30, 100)? Will cities be OK with hundreds of drones flying overhead - I expect some cities / states to put up roadblocks even if the FAA is ok with it.

There's much more of an argument for drone deliveries in rural areas that are difficult to reach by road. However, the fact remains that a truck still has to get the drones close to the destination so it's then more debatable how much of a saving that produces. I have serious concerns about the public reaction to multiple drones flying around cities, even if there was an effective way to guarantee safe, accurate deliveries. I await the future with bated breath!

 

[Thomas B]

Crowded skies! I have notified Amazon, and others, not to deliver to me this way for personal and practical reasons.

 

[BikerBuster]

Oh it's just a publicity stunt.
Get over it you lot..

 

[maelstrom]

Oh it's just a publicity stunt.
Get over it you lot..

I'd be surprised if even Amazon would invest so much money in a publicity stunt. Remember that trials have already been going on for some time.

 

[BikerBuster]

Why not? That clown elon musk threw a car into space.. as if littering this planet wasn't enough..

 

[Bob4131]

WakeMed Hospital System has been experimenting using drones to deliver samples from its various hospitals to it central lab for a year. I have been told it may go "live" by year end. There is an advantage of sending a sample from an ER now at 4AM vs waiting for the 6AM delivery van that will then take two hours to get to the lab because of other stops and rush hour traffic. The DR gets the results 4 hours earlier. Plus the lab is getting samples throughout the day versus a few big deliveries every few hours. Again, we will see how it works out.

 

[Bob4131]

There's much more of an argument for drone deliveries in rural areas that are difficult to reach by road. However, the fact remains that a truck still has to get the drones close to the destination so it's then more debatable how much of a saving that produces. I have serious concerns about the public reaction to multiple drones flying around cities, even if there was an effective way to guarantee safe, accurate deliveries. I await the future with bated breath!

Remember close today is a 12 mile radius. In a few years, it will be 25 miles, and that is straight air miles not winding country or suburbian roads. And remember we have different kinds or rural. In the east and south, rural means, each house has 100 acres or so. In the west, people get clustered in the 20% of land not owned by the government.

 

[Bob4131]

Crowded skies! I have notified Amazon, and others, not to deliver to me this way for personal and practical reasons.

I am interested in why you feel this way. Assuming the package appears on your doorstep as it does today and the FAA has determined it is safe, why do you care? Especially if it reduces delivery costs and eventually the price you pay by a $1 a package? Not saying you a wrong, just wondering about your reasoning, since I am guessing you are not blanket anti-drone. ? Thanks

 

[BikerBuster]

Just waiting for the toerags with baseball bats, practising on very expensive drones.

 

[lookout]

WakeMed Hospital System has been experimenting using drones to deliver samples from its various hospitals to it central lab for a year. I have been told it may go "live" by year end. There is an advantage of sending a sample from an ER now at 4AM vs waiting for the 6AM delivery van that will then take two hours to get to the lab because of other stops and rush hour traffic. The DR gets the results 4 hours earlier. Plus the lab is getting samples throughout the day versus a few big deliveries every few hours. Again, we will see how it works out.

Sitting in an ER room...

They spend more time checking to see if you have insurance and whether it is going to pay.

 

[maelstrom]

There is an advantage of sending a sample from an ER now at 4AM vs waiting for the 6AM delivery van that will then take two hours to get to the lab because of other stops and rush hour traffic. The DR gets the results 4 hours earlier. Plus the lab is getting samples throughout the day versus a few big deliveries every few hours. Again, we will see how it works out.

I appreciate that you could potentially save time by drone (although not always), but sending the samples by road means that they’re much more likely to arrive safely every time. There are too many variables that could affect the success of a drone delivery.

 

[lookout]

I appreciate that you could potentially save time by drone (although not always), but sending the samples by road means that they’re much more likely to arrive safely every time. There are too many variables that could affect the success of a drone delivery.

Amazon wanted a special way into your house--leave a door open for them with a special amazon access. Remember that? Not gonna happen with a drone...

 

[Thomas B]

I am interested in why you feel this way. Assuming the package appears on your doorstep as it does today and the FAA has determined it is safe, why do you care? Especially if it reduces delivery costs and eventually the price you pay by a $1 a package? Not saying you a wrong, just wondering about your reasoning, since I am guessing you are not blanket anti-drone. ? Thanks

Free shipping with prime. The trees around my house, on a private road built by the homeowners on a dead end road, my dogs, and my livestock. I don’t fly in my neighborhood and don’t want Amazon doing it. There are areas where the drone delivery makes sense to me, but not whet it requires exceptional piloting to get in an area. Also, don’t want to open my front for when in a hurry and meet a drone in flight.