Has the drone industry reached stagnation ??

[Mavic-Master88]

You already do. It's called a $5 registration fee.

$5 registration fees are chump change compared to the kind of revenue that commercial drone taxes will generate --- even as a conservative estimate, let's say 10% tax and if you assume Amazon or Walmart or Walgreens will impose a $5 surcharge for urgent drone delivery within 30 minutes of placing an order --- that means 50 cents in state tax revenue every time a commercial drone takes off --- multiply that times hundreds or thousands of flights per day in any given county --- now you can see why govt. will give all the breaks to the commercial droners

 

[Mavic-Master88]

If the gov't charges a fee for taking the new, up and coming recreational knowledge test, doesn't grandfather it in, and continues to charge for a re-test/ "cert" every year or so, the govern't will be making its millions off of us recreational fliers anyway. Again, I am guessing here, but I can see that as a real, possible happening. It never fails...if there's a way for the gov't to make money off of something that becomes popular w/ a lot of people, they eventually figure out a way to get their "piece of the pie." :-(

The govt. will certainly make $$ off our registration fees, cert. exams, and fines --- but the commercial drone taxes will be their real windfall --- not to mention the commercial operators will pay much heavier registration and annual compliance fees than the average hobbyist will.

But of course, all those commercial fees and taxes are ultimately paid by consumers --- so we lose in the end, as per the usual.

 

[FoxhallGH]

What we are seeing here in the UK (and I guess it's pretty much the same everywhere else), is the CAA gearing up toward a 'Unified Traffic Management' approach that will allow drones to share the skies with other aircraft in a safe and transparent way. So far, DJI has actually 'pushed' regulatory bodies like the FAA and CAA, in that they have introduced Geofencing and transmission of ID data etc. ... The Regulators are now catching up! It's my thought, that DJI is now waiting to see what the likes of the FAA and CAA are going to throw out there as requirements on vendors. We have already seen a draft release here in the UK of a CAA regulation [CAP 1789] to come in next year, that will classify drones into 3 classes, and also classify the type of work they will be 'allowed' to do. It also attempts to bring about a complete alignment of regulations regarding UAV's across Europe.
Although DJI are beloved of recreational and commercial operators, it's not a great leap to recognise that they MUST want to be a leading force in future autonomous UAV manufacture. That's the area that I'd put my development money toward right now, but - I'd recognise that with regulations still being drafted, this is the time to put lobbying before development.

 

[Mavic-Master88]

What we are seeing here in the UK (and I guess it's pretty much the same everywhere else), is the CAA gearing up toward a 'Unified Traffic Management' approach that will allow drones to share the skies with other aircraft in a safe and transparent way.

Ultimately, that's where everything should be headed to make it a win-win for everyone involved --- the hobbyists, commercial operators, and govt. agencies tasked with enforcing safety.

My guess is that within 15-20 years ALL aerial machines (manned or unmanned) will have transponders installed that will talk to each other and make it possible for millions of machines to co-exist in the same airspace without colliding into each other. Technology will be good enough by that point to even allow consumer drones to fly around airports without causing any unnecessary worry. This is a lot more sensible goal than telling all the hobbyists to go eat dirt just because some lucrative commercial operators want exclusive rights to certain airspace.

 

[globetrotterdrone]

@Mavic-Master88
Quite the opposite mate, but now being curious, what limits you with your drone today?

These ultra short product cycles we see with phones are not ultimately favouring quality, so I guess, a new Mavic model for example every 2 to 3 years, is fine. As DJI has diversified their products quite a bit, there's always something going on.

 

[old man mavic]

@Mavic-Master88 while i can understand the thoughts you have put forwards about commercial companies wanting the air space below 400ft to be there for them only, because they think that the revenue that governments will be able to impose on them, will prevent others from flying in that air space ,if that did ever come to pass which is highly unlikely then we are talking many many years down the line for such a scenario the logistics involved in getting a drone to fly in an urban enviroment from point a to point b ,without a pilot and carrying a worthwhile payload safely are many years away, i am not for one minute saying it is not possible,given a rural setting with wide open spaces it is happening now,but in densely populated areas the idea is fraught with problems that will have to be overcome the main ones are public acceptance and litigation costs when things go wrong

 

[MaviCam]

This guy explains them --- I think it's obvious the Feds are gonna restrict the airspace for us hobbyists to favor commercial delivery drones like Amazon is planning on using --- the govt. can make MILLIONS from taxes and fees on commercial drone delivery but makes nothing on recreational drone use:

Do a bit of research and let us know how much Amazon is paying in taxes. They have twisted and subverted tax laws to the point that they are not actually paying those MILLIONS in taxes. Expect more of the same when/if they get into the commercial drone delivery business.

 

[Photo Beaty]

In my opinion the Mavic 2 is so close to meeting my wants and needs that it is not necessary to release a new version just for the sake of something new. The rapid changes of the last few years got closer and closer to what I wanted.

 

[kvilleguy]

i dont think that any of the new legislation being applied,to drones is designed to kill of our hobby,it is a way of ensuring that people fly there drones in a safe as possible way to help prevent accidents,it is no different to the rules that manned aviation has to comply with in order to take to the skies.

right on

 

[M2Pro]

Just wondering why no new Mavic or Phantom models announced for 2019?

It seems like the consumer drone industry has reached a point of stagnation --- gone are the days from 2014 thru 2018 when new models would really get us pumped up with excitement.

Is it because the new FAA drone laws being enacted soon will kill off the hobby?

Consider it as the death of Manned Flight......they are jealous and don't want to lose their right to Lord over the rest of us.....Push back Drone Pilots.....did you know that the air around your house and property is not owned by the FAA up to 50ish feet......something about a safeguard.....the height of your tallest structure times 2.....
This is the scenario......if you own property you can travel, drag race....etc..without a driver's license of any kind. Flight over your property by yourself is the same with anything you fly.....but if you hit the road or air outside of this boundary you have to be legit....since your interaction is with everyone. Right now there is a 50 ft. height limit in my area. That is my limits...plus the Boundaries of my property

 

[GGehret]

The govt. will certainly make $$ off our registration fees, cert. exams, and fines --- but the commercial drone taxes will be their real windfall --- not to mention the commercial operators will pay much heavier registration and annual compliance fees than the average hobbyist will.

But of course, all those commercial fees and taxes are ultimately paid by consumers --- so we lose in the end, as per the usual.

Yes, you are correct...there's always a cost to us, one way or the other.

 

[Xavier Truth]

Just wondering why no new Mavic or Phantom models announced for 2019?

It seems like the consumer drone industry has reached a point of stagnation --- gone are the days from 2014 thru 2018 when new models would really get us pumped up with excitement.

Is it because the new FAA drone laws being enacted soon will kill off the hobby?

I’m quite pleased with it. As soon as a new Mavic model hits the market, it decreases the resale value of my Mavic 2 Pro. I hope they don’t make another Mavic model for a least another 5 years or so, I can live with that... I also look at mine as an investment too.

 

[Mavic-Master88]

In my opinion the Mavic 2 is so close to meeting my wants and needs that it is not necessary to release a new version just for the sake of something new. The rapid changes of the last few years got closer and closer to what I wanted.

The small size and portability of the Mavic is nice --- but there are still many innovations to be had with consumer drones --- 8K camera sensors --- 10X-20X optical zoom --- thermal and night vision capability --- FPV + controlling the drone over the cellular networks for vastly improved non-LOS flying --- various delivery mechanisms such as winches, drop devices, etc

 

[Mr. Salty]

don't they give that $5 back?

No.

 

[Mavic-Master88]

.... the logistics involved in getting a drone to fly in an urban enviroment from point a to point b ,without a pilot and carrying a worthwhile payload safely are many years away, i am not for one minute saying it is not possible,given a rural setting with wide open spaces it is happening now,but in densely populated areas the idea is fraught with problems that will have to be overcome the main ones are public acceptance and litigation costs when things go wrong

Drone delivery in an urban environment is indeed a highly challenging task --- but my guess is that the "Uber-ization" model will take effect and make it more feasible in many situations. Some people will have properties in urban areas that are suitable for drone delivery and they will become "dropoff centers" where locals can pick up their air-delivered goods, or maybe even a delivery service like Uber or Lyft can take your package from the air-drop location to your residence. I can also see businesses signing contracts to be air-drop centers --- very similar to how 7-Eleven and Whole Foods have Amazon Lockers at their establishments now.

 

[Mavic-Master88]

I’m quite pleased with it. As soon as a new Mavic model hits the market, it decreases the resale value of my Mavic 2 Pro. I hope they don’t make another Mavic model for a least another 5 years or so, I can live with that... I also look at mine as an investment too.

The yearly product cycle from DJI does have a downside --- mainly the requirement for new types of batteries and controllers when there is a significant change in model design. I remember throwing a hissy fit when I had to ditch my six extra batteries for my P3P that I paid over $750 for when I upgraded to the M2 Zoom.

However, I'm willing to tolerate this kind of financial investment if there is more rapid innovations in consumer drones ---- such as 8K camera sensors --- 10X-20X optical zoom --- thermal and night vision capability --- FPV + controlling the drone over the cellular networks for vastly improved non-LOS flying --- various delivery mechanisms such as winches, drop devices, etc

 

[Mavic-Master88]

Quite the opposite mate, but now being curious, what limits you with your drone today?

These ultra short product cycles we see with phones are not ultimately favouring quality, so I guess, a new Mavic model for example every 2 to 3 years, is fine. As DJI has diversified their products quite a bit, there's always something going on.

I think there is still a LOT of innovation possible for consumer and professional drones --- 8K camera sensors --- 10X-20X optical zoom --- thermal and night vision capability --- FPV + controlling the drone over the cellular networks for vastly improved non-LOS flying --- various delivery mechanisms such as winches, drop devices, etc.

Some of these innovations are very expensive but also very useful, and of course the cost will come down once production quantities ramp up. Search-and-rescue drones will not become truly effective until you can control them over the cell towers because LOS greatly hampers their capabiities in hilly and forested environments --- and of course 8K imaging sensors and 20X optical zoom would make it much easier to spot and differentiate people from vegetation, rocks, etc.

Further into the future, AI will affect everything including drones. There are countless uses (good and bad) for an AI-controlled drone. It will be pretty cool when we can just speak to our drones Alexa-style and tell it do tasks --- "Hey drone, fly along the perimeter of my property and record any suspicious activity from interlopers, and also record any interesting wildlife, and then fly down to the local convenience store and pick me up a can of my favorite beer and a 6-inch hoagie"

 

[gottahavit]

Do a bit of research and let us know how much Amazon is paying in taxes. They have twisted and subverted tax laws to the point that they are not actually paying those MILLIONS in taxes. Expect more of the same when/if they get into the commercial drone delivery business.

First: I am hopeful new Hobbyist automated flight approval system(if we get it) will make flying less annoying and improve the hobby

Second: I think the next real innovation in drones needs to be Batteries. Currently I think they've hit the limit on flight time and power and there needs to be new battery improvements before we see next big drone innovation

Lastly: to the comment above, It's not about whether amazon pays tax or not that will let them take over the hobbyist airspace for delivery. It's how much they pay the lobbyists and officials to make that happen and any money they could ever make off hobbyist in taxes and fees is insignificant to what amazon would pay to own the airspace. The worst part of this is that I see drone delivery being primarily restricted to business deliveries and not consumers, so we could lose our airspace AND not even be able to take advantage of the service.

 

[EricJT]

Do a bit of research and let us know how much Amazon is paying in taxes. They have twisted and subverted tax laws to the point that they are not actually paying those MILLIONS in taxes. Expect more of the same when/if they get into the commercial drone delivery business.

Excellent point! I would take it one step further and ask who makes the tax laws that the tech companies use to minimize their taxes? The politicians agreed to massive tax changes that were going to increase jobs when companies reinvested their tax savings in increased capital investment.

Riiight....if you call stock buy backs to improve PE ratios capital investment then someone rewrote the basic rules of Finance. And then don't get me started on tarrifs....as we have all seen, we the consumer pay higher prices for tarriffed products. Off shore manufacturing has not magically reappeared in the USA after increasing tarrifs. Just my 2 cents.

 

[LenSavage]

From my prospective as a Commercial Drone Pilot - a decline in hobbyists and the perception of slow release of 'the-next-innovation' has no effect on me.
The majority of flights that I do are 107 missions with either my Mavic Pro or my Phantom 3 4K which are both stable, reliable and produce a quality image.
I have spent many years as a photographer and videographer and I see drones as simply a means of positioning a camera into a new range of locations - a really tall tripod or crane or dolly.
I don't envision the current 4K log video and hi-res raw stills becoming obsolete any time soon. Most of the magic happens in post in Premiere and DaVinci anyway.
Mansions are not built by tools but craftsmen. A little rust on the tools do not change the outcome and a few less hobbyists might just be a plus.
Not sorry.