The gimbal housing is a lot smaller on a
M2P if the photos are accurate, and the
M3 drone is (allegedly) significantly larger than the M2.
A 1/2" sensor has a crop factor of ~5.4 relative to a full frame sensor. With that information we know the lens' actual focal length (from 160mm equivalent) is ~29.63mm which means it needs to have a minimum front element diameter of ~6.73mm. Also, as is often the case with lens design, compromises can be made to make the lens as small as possible with processing used to remove the resulting distortion and vignetting, which is another thing they could be doing. Looking at the leaked images, obviously we don't have great sense of scale, but the front element on that zoom lens could very easily be ~6.3mm and the M43 camera only needs a (minimum) front element size of 4.3mm which quite a bit smaller yet. The gimbal looks like it's more than large enough to house both sensors but again it's hard to get a really great sense of scale.
Personally, I think the spec list is very reasonable and in no way does it read like a 'wish list', especially relative to DJI's other drones, so I am inclined to believe it so far. I also think it would be strange for such a credible and extensive leak (that looks exactly like DJI spec sheets for existing drones) to have virtually everything right except the sensor sizes when everything is so specific. It's also hard to get a sense of scale when looking at leaked photos of prototypes but we already 'know' the drone is significantly larger than the M2. If they stuck with a 1"sensor, the gap between the
M3 and
Air 2S would be extremely small for most users, with the biggest difference just being the adjustable aperture (which granted is a big deal). Lastly, if we really are less than a month from announcement, there is virtually no chance that DJI has managed to keep the specs a total secret. I am not aware of any electronics company that can keep everything a secret when mass production and multiple component vendors are involved - not a direct comparison, but we usually know the majority of next year's smartphone specs 4-6 months in advance and that's only with a one year cycle.
Personally I believe the sensor sizes based on the information we have so far only because IMO I haven't seen anything that makes me doubt it up to this point. Of course, the leaked info and photos and everything could be completely fabricated, but it doesn't seem like it, so far anyway. I will certainly be disappointed if it turns out someone has gone to extreme lengths to fabricate such a plausible spec list and fake photos with everything ending up completely wrong.
If it's another 20MP 1" sensor, many buyers would just stick with their
M2P or
Air 2S as they wouldn't be gaining a whole lot other than flight time and better video resolution. Also, DJI has increased the Air's sensor from 1/2.3" to 1/2" to 1" - it would be very odd if DJI did not increase the sensor size on the
M3 at all. On top of that, the
M3's main competitor (Autel EVO III) is rumored to be announced with a M43 sensor as well as multi-camera options and even a model with a 1.4" sensor (it would sit somewhere between APS-C and FF). If that's true, I don't believe DJI would allow themselves to be outclassed to such a large degree either. So yeah, basically I have seen nothing so far that makes me believe the sensor sizes are wrong, but I also acknowledge it's possible someone has gone to great lengths to fool us all with credible looking specs & photos. I also really don't believe DJI would fall so far behind Autel, and I'm sure they know exactly what eachother are up to.
