Mavic Pro 3 delayed due to CV?

[gnirtS]

1. If I buy a drone now - any drone - is it going to be basically grounded in 1-3 years? Because I'm literally not ok with that. That means I can't sell it some day to finance my next one, and that my $2000 investment might be a complete waste.

Grounded no. But potentially much more restricted in use. In Europe for example any non certified drone will become "legacy" in 2022 and have far more restrictive conditions to legally operate. Its highly possible a drone without remote ID will have similar use restrictions elsewhere by then.

2. Tell me about the Mini. What's wrong with it? (A review I read highlighted some cameras features that were missing that were a complete dealbreaker for me, but that I was hopeful could be added with firmware. Is that the issue, or something else?).

Nothing wrong as such, it depends what you want a drone for. If you want the absolute best image quality a M2P will beat it hands down - its not even a contest. If you fly in windy areas a mini might struggle.
But if you absolutely need something small and light enough to bypass current restrictions and registrations a mini is perfect.

DJI has never stated it was even thinking of releasing a M3 this year at any time. There's been zero evidence of such.
Most likely they have a basi spec list and design ready (R&D never stops) but waiting for the regulatory mess to become clearer before finalising a feature set and making one.

 

[msinger]

Obviously that date came and went

Those dates always come and go because the people who make them up have absolutely no idea what DJI is really doing. Fake news

 

[MAvic_South_Oz]

1. If I buy a drone now - any drone - is it going to be basically grounded in 1-3 years? Because I'm literally not ok with that. That means I can't sell it some day to finance my next one, and that my $2000 investment might be a complete waste.

We aren't getting remote ID, like the US . . . of course this could change, who knows what CASA might do, their own thing like planned, or 'follow the leader' in the way the US is going.

We don't have a big drone scene, and personally I feel there are too many difficult issues to see autonomous drone deliveries being viable in the foreseeable near future, this is why all the US remote ID is being brought in really.

I'm not sure what that will mean if you wanted to travel extensively Worldwide with your drone.
Euro is getting new regs too, possibly some sort of remote ID/ other system to track and monitor drones in the same way.

At this stage, commercial REPL and Excluded category start their new processes Sept this year, postponed from April 1 due to covid-19.

Hobbyists don't have to do anything until 2022, then if things don't change there will be a simple rules online test to do, and aircraft registration / labelling drone with the hobbyists ARN.

CASA drone licencing / registration update 1/4/20

Update email today, which anyone can sign up to here . . . CASA mailing lists Updates are posted to the CASA website here too . . . Latest updates The latest . . ...

mavicpilots.com

2. Tell me about the Mini. What's wrong with it? (A review I read highlighted some cameras features that were missing that were a complete dealbreaker for me, but that I was hopeful could be added with firmware. Is that the issue, or something else?).

The mini.
Was designed to be a travel drone, to get around all the previous (and mostly still) sub 250g rule in most countries.
But some places are changing anyway, anything with camera will need registering to fly.
To make it light, they compromised a lot of features, and build.
It still has a great camera for video, but photos still aren't up to M2P hasselblad level by far.

Have a look through the Mavic Crash & Flyaway section.
Wind is a major problem, and to me it's enough that unless perfect conditions and you know what you're doing, the mini is a lot easier to lose than the larger aircraft.
Some say no problems with wind, but you only have to look at how many pilots fail; to account to wind in their flight plan, and when trying to RTH the mini simply gets blown away.

Uncontrolled descents, into the ocean, lakes, other water, ground (crashes), no enough power issues under duress, props not working as they should, arms flexing too far, props hitting body, some of these could be related to the uncontrolled descent issue.

I wouldn't trust DJI enough now for new releases, unless waiting for bug fixes and problems like this to emerge.

That's why I think you should go M2P for what you want now, and why now.

 

[Meta4]

I just had a solid clue that December was the targeted release date, I'd feel a lot more comfortable with that.

DJI have always been pretty good at keeping a lid on things until two weeks before release.
You aren't likely to have months of warning something is coming.

Still photos are a big part of what I want the drone for, so the MP2 it is for me really. Not really any other options I see.

The Phantom 4 pro?

1. If I buy a drone now - any drone - is it going to be basically grounded in 1-3 years?
No-one can tell you what regulations will be in years to come.
But it's quite possible that new regulations would apply to new equipment and older equipment could continue to be used.

2. Tell me about the Mini. What's wrong with it?

It's a cheap, minimum weight drone, minimum features drone made to attract buyers who don't want to spend as much as good drones cost.
It's also underpowered and has very limited performance.
On top of that, too many are being lost because of a design fault which still hasn't been corrected (or even completely identified).

 

[MAvic_South_Oz]

The Phantom 4 pro?

Well yeah !
Always forget these are still about

Same 20mp, different camera, but some say better than the Hasselblad in ways.
It is much larger in the air, but is probably just a smidgen better performer than the Mavics in wind.
The only thing they detracts is the lack of portability.

Minimal price difference here now, a couple of hundred more for the P4P.

 

[zocalo]

So I'm not quite across the "Anti DJI" stuff. Is that just because they're Chinese? Like the whole Huawei thing?

It's like Huawei. Lots of claims, no actual evidence (in public at least). The claims are basically that DJI drones are sending data back to China, which if you are using a DJI drone to survey sensitive locations would be a problem were it not possible to manage this through how you use the drone. I guess a foreign agent with an Aeroscope type device could eavesdrop on comms of a drone (any drone, not just DJIs) in flight, but again, that's something you can manage. For truly sensitive locations it might be prudent to be a little more selective in how you do your surveys, etc., but for most locations and uses it's really not going to matter whether all the data is sent to China or not.

And also, with these upcoming laws, will that be for all drones moving forward? Or will old drones become illegal? Because that's just another reason not to buy right now if that's the case.

ALL manufacturers, not just DJI, and although there are a few exceptions for things like home-built aircraft those come with quite strict restrictions on how and where they can be flown to use the UK's implementation as an example. Economies of scale in manufacturing mean it's likely to apply to all commercial drones on the global market, especially given how many countries are considering similar legislation. DJI does seem to be somewhat ahead of the curve on this though, having voluntarily started to implement things like NFZs before it became a requirement, so I expect they are pretty much ready to go once they feel the market is ready for a given product launch.

 

[Johnmcl7]

DJI has never stated it was even thinking of releasing a M3 this year at any time. There's been zero evidence of such.
Most likely they have a basi spec list and design ready (R&D never stops) but waiting for the regulatory mess to become clearer before finalising a feature set and making one.

This is exactly it and I find it frustrating how a made up rumour about the Mavic Pro 3 releasing at the end of January became fact not just around forums but news sites were picking it up as well and worse yet the fact it was completely wrong yet again doesn't lose the site all its credibility.

It's not just drones either as it seems most technologies now have their own fake rumour sites that main sites feed from without any sort of checking, I've been following the new Nvidia cards with interest because two unknown cards have appeared in benchmarks showing they are on their way. I saw a headline with more details but then at the end the source was a newly created Twitter account which surprise, surprise was a complete load of nonsense.

The only leaks I pay attention to are shots of the new device or any actual evidence such as regulatory certification, the rest can be safely ignored since these sites have to keep making up rumours to drive traffic to their sites. For the few times they are right just remember a broken watch still tells the correct time twice a day.

 

[gnirtS]

Its the same with any drone or new bit of kit as you said.
Its even worse in the youtube era - people desperate for click bait and revenue just make "exclusive" rumour videos based on nothing at all just to draw in viewers.
As there is going to be a new DJI drone at some point, if you keep predicting a mavic 3 and a release date you'll be right ONCE and people forget the 50 times before that you were wrong.

 

[StuartM]

So, before the **** hit the fan, there were rumours of January 2020 for the MP3.

Obviously that date came and went, and some said it was to better compete with the Autel.

Now there's this situation... do you think DJI will release the MP3 soon, or is it on hold until supply chains open up, people aren't locked down, and have money to spend again? (Which would likely delay it until at least June, but possibly October-December).

And seeing as most estimates put that at 6 months away, do you think they will use the extra 6-9 months to improve the specs? Or are they locked in (ie. Drones already produced, and just awaiting the announcement).

I also have a strong suspicion that they knew about Covid-19 in China 3-5 months before WE realised the seriousness of it, and perhaps anticipating its effects, might have chosen to delay and improve the drone quite a few months ago, rather than ship it now when noone can use or afford it.

Pure speculation surely? Have you some inside information that there will be an MP3?

 

[Ducatinus]

Why i will not buy an MP2 now?
Because of the weight. It’s 7 grams to heavy. Above 900 grams its an C2 classe with limitations and extra regulations.
I hope the new mavic will be 7 grams lighter, better specs than the existing AIR and price range between the air and MP2. Look at the 249grams of the MM.

An MP2+ that is below <900grams will do also perfectly. Just send the MP2 to the weight watchers

 

[gnirtS]

Why i will not buy an MP2 now?
Because of the weight. It’s 7 grams to heavy. Above 900 grams its an C2 classe with limitations and extra regulations.
I hope the new mavic will be 7 grams lighter, better specs than the existing AIR and price range between the air and MP2. Look at the 249grams of the MM.

An MP2+ that is below <900grams will do also perfectly. Just send the MP2 to the weight watchers

It doesnt matter if its 850g or even a mavic 1, air,spark,evo,parrot. EASA classification is not retrospective so ALL drones prior to certification will be legacy ad therefore restricted after 2022.
Also dont forget its 900g OR a certain impact force. None of us know the modelling for a mavic 2 impact force. Its not impossible its already below that (but doesnt matter, as stated above).

EASA rule also have restrictions on control link security, potential identification, slow speed mode, max speed limits and so on. Its not just weight.

 

[Ducatinus]

It doesnt matter if its 850g or even a mavic 1, air,spark,evo,parrot. EASA classification is not retrospective so ALL drones prior to certification will be legacy ad therefore restricted after 2022.
Also dont forget its 900g OR a certain impact force. None of us know the modelling for a mavic 2 impact force. Its not impossible its already below that (but doesnt matter, as stated above).

EASA rule also have restrictions on control link security, potential identification, slow speed mode, max speed limits and so on. Its not just weight.

Our European rules that will start this summer are not clear about impact force. Not a wizzkid on rules but below are the images

 

[MAvic_South_Oz]

Isn't EASA also going to have the camera clause ?
Anything that can record 'data' is going to need registration anyway ?

 

[zocalo]

Isn't EASA also going to have the camera clause ?
Anything that can record 'data' is going to need registration anyway ?

Yes is it, but the devil is going to be in the details as enacted into law by the individual EU governments. The crux is going to be what criteria are used to determine whether a given drone camera is capable of causing the a breach of privacy.

I suspect most will just err on the side of simplicity/caution and just go with "if it has a camera", especially since any drone over 250g needs to be registered anyway, but a more nuanced approach would be to take into account the resolution of the camera, the camera's field of view at maximum zoom, and the minimum distance that a drone can be flown from an uninvolved person (probably expressed in terms of pixel density on target for simplicity).

While that would potentially open up a market for smaller drones like the Mini that would not need to be registered to reduce the administrative overhead, but whether that would be seen as a viable approach would depend on the specific scheme of the government. Personally, I don't think the market segment is large enough to justify that, but there *are* a lot of "toy" drones out there that are essentially only useful as a selfie cam that would otherwise need to be registered, so time will tell.

 

[MAvic_South_Oz]

The crux is going to be what criteria are used to determine whether a given drone camera is capable of causing the a breach of privacy.

Or collecting 'data', whatever that means.
Sure pixels could be considered data, and thus photos.

But my initial thoughts when I heard about this proposal was data is more something that can be collated and used to graph, maybe information from thermal data for agriculture etc.
Not photos.
But you know most GOVCOs, the more complex they can make something, they seem to go that way.

I suspect most will just err on the side of simplicity/caution and just go with "if it has a camera", especially since any drone over 250g needs to be registered anyway, but a more nuanced approach would be to take into account the resolution of the camera, the camera's field of view at maximum zoom, and the minimum distance that a drone can be flown from an uninvolved person (probably expressed in terms of pixel density on target for simplicity).

Yep, they won't bother doing that I feel, they will just go with a blanket approach on camera if they choose to call a photo or video data.

 

[Ducatinus]

So why would DJI not simply redesign the MP2 and cut off 8 grams somewhere? That will boost the sales in the EU this summer. 8 grams is easy weight to loose. Get the existing mavic pro drones range in the EU c1 class.
Boost sales in this difficult periode and come with the mavic 3 after covid.

To simple i guess?

 

[GadgetGuy]

I agree with your assessment, except for "no viable competition"

Buy Autel Evo 2 Drone | Rise Above Australia

On Paper, it beats the Mavic 2 Pro in many areas.

I am only not jumping on the M2P because it's just too late to do so, but I don't currently own a drone, so I was eager to get something soon (But pretty pointless right now).

Why is it too late to jump on the M2P?

 

[zocalo]

Why is it too late to jump on the M2P?

It would depend on what you intend to use it for and how long you expect to be using it in that way. The M2P does NOT comply with the new EASA regulations and - barring postponement of implementation dates - will be classed as "Legacy" from July 2021, which severely limits what you can do with it, even with additional certifications. Given the lockdown, that could potentially mean it only has a viable operational lifetime of about a year before it's no longer fit for purpose. From a business/finanancial perspective that's a fairly simple RoI calculation - "Can I make back the cost of the aircraft, plus reasonable profits, within 1 year?" But you could also take a slightly different view if you take a roll of the dice; "If I assume that the M3 (or whatever) ships by Autumn, which offers the better cashflow; the M2P in 1 year (as calculated above), or the presumably EASA compliant "M3" with no return until it ships, but an ability to generate revenue for much longer?"

I already have an M2P and am very happy with it, but even it needed replacement before I could fly again then I'd almost certainly take a punt and wait for the M3 at this point. Between the Covid-19 lockdown curtailing travel and flight opportunities for the next month or two (at least), the high probability of an updated and regulatory compliant M3 fairly soon, that's an easy decision for me (it would get a LOT more difficult if I have a big photo trip prior to getting a new drone though), and I suspect many others are coming to a similar conclusion. I'm also pretty sure that DJI knows this and will be watching the sales figures, including that of Autel et. al, very carefully to ensure they whatever they have in development (and they surely do have something in development) is ready at what they judge the most opportune time to generate sales. I'd say there are two options there - either when travel restrictions lift to the point that people can really start flying again (hopefully Summer), or in time to ship for Christmas (e.g. an mid/late Autumn announcement and launch).

 

[Meta4]

The M2P does NOT comply with the new EASA regulations and - barring postponement of implementation dates - will be classed as "Legacy" from July 2021, which severely limits what you can do with it,

But EASA applies to Europe only and as the OP has said that he's Australian, none of this will matter to him.

 

[MAvic_South_Oz]

Unless he travels a lot . . . but then there are already some fairly stringent rules in place in a lot of countries for an M2P size drone.