New Jersey Drone Sightings May Not Be Drones. By Professor Will Austin.

[mavic3usa]

I find the whole situation rather interesting and bizarre. I agree with others here that I have yet to see a single video or photo that shows dozens of drones. Showing a single or few lights in the sky in some of the busiest airspace in the nation doesn't really prove them to be drones. Especially when they have the telltale markers of manned aircraft. Reports by a cop who apparently say 50 drones coming in off the ocean without a single video is also very suspect.

Do we believe something just because a cop said it? People see these drones flying in a grid pattern but yet they look like a line of planes coming in to land at what are some of the busiest airports in the nation. Just because more people are seeing this and posting videos doesn't prove anything.

Why were there so many UFO sightings in the 50s and 60s? Because there were more people reporting things. That makes other people seem to think they saw something. Yet with more modern technology today, we don't see anything that is any better than what was reported decades ago. Right now you have everyone out there with their phone (a poor camera for this) pointed to the sky thinking they are seeing drones or UAPs. The problem is that most of these people have no real knowledge or understanding of what they should be looking at or looking for.

Why aren't people in Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and other big city busy airports not calling in fake drone sighting when planes from those areas line up in formation like they've done for years? Why didn't people in NYC airports report the same last year?

Why would the military and the FAA and the government and the FBI says "We have no idea what this is" when they should have said what you see which is "These are planes coming into and landing at the busy airport."

Because those groups triggered this event and stood back and watched the fear spread while giving it nudges here and there.

 

[Chip]

Why aren't people in Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and other big city busy airports not calling in fake drone sighting when planes from those areas line up in formation like they've done for years? Why didn't people in NYC airports report the same last year?

Why would the military and the FAA and the government and the FBI says "We have no idea what this is" when they should have said what you see which is "These are planes coming into and landing at the busy airport."

Because those groups triggered this event and stood back and watched the fear spread while giving it nudges here and there.

Now that is good question. Maybe only the people in New Jersey have habitually looked down at the ground for years thus failing to notice the big changes in the sky?

 

[eEridani]

[snip] Why would the military and the FAA and the government and the FBI says "We have no idea what this is" when they should have said what you see which is "These are planes coming into and landing at the busy airport."

Because at the time they said it they hadn't done a serious investigation of the reports because, hionestly, most folk can tell the videos are of normal sky traffic, and nothing is there to investigate. The FBI has more important things to do than chase down bogus youtube posts that are there as click bait.

Because those groups triggered this event and stood back and watched the fear spread while giving it nudges here and there.

No, this is paranoia talking. And a main reason there is a real psychological thing call mass hysteria. Here's a documented example:

Psychogenic epidemic - mass hysteria phenomena in Portugal - PMC

Mass hysteria also called mass psychogenic illness (MPI), defined as a social phenomenon, consists of collective anxiety due to a perceived threat and can culminate in a cascade of symptoms suggestive of organic disease without an identifiable ...

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[mavic3usa]

No, I am not changing anything.

Here's a quote from the authorities:
“We assess that the sightings to date include a combination of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones and law enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircrafts, helicopters, and even stars that were mistakenly reported as drones,” Kirby said.

https://www.cnn.com/

2024/12/15/us/drone-sightings-east-coast/index.html
Anyone who has been quoted as saying "We don't know" were simply not in the loop and expressing a personal opinion before anyone actually started explaining the claims.

Show me any .gov post where the authorities looked and found drones where those most common videos were taken. Just one, please, I beg of you.

Not trying to rewrite it. Just stating facts of the events so far. It is tantamount to conspiracy to do anything else. Repeating unfounded claims is just amplifying the rumor, part of that mass hysteria thing I keep mentioning.

I think the video speaks for itself. Thanks for posting the details that support my assertions. Pretty convenient for you to pick and choose who's in the loop and who's out of the loop based on what they said but I heard what I heard and I know what they said....and so does everyone else. Won't be able to change what happened in mid-November with your mid-December references.

 

[eEridani]

Now that is good question. Maybe only the people in New Jersey have habitually looked down at the ground for years thus failing to notice the big changes in the sky?

It isn't the ground they are looking at, it's all the videos. Who do you know that actually looks up from their cell phone?

 

[eEridani]

I think the video speaks for itself. Thanks for posting the details that support my assertions. Pretty convenient for you to pick and choose who's in the loop and who's out of the loop based on what they said but I heard what I heard and I know what they said....and so does everyone else. Won't be able to change what happened in mid-November with your mid-December references.

That's funny. So if someone tells me on Monday they saw a drone interfering with airport traffic over central park and I've hired an investigator the day I got the report, who hasn't verified the event nor found the drone and its owner the next few days; and Thursday I tell reporters "My investigator hasn't found anything." that is a problem for you?

Research into these types of events and reports don't happen instantaneously. It is silly to expect next day answers. Though, too often the media does just that. It is part of that amplification part of rumor mills.

A real answer a month later seems pretty fast to me. Though its likely they had a fair idea the week after the reports started as the masses also wanted to find drones in the sky.

 

[mavic3usa]

Because at the time they said it they hadn't done a serious investigation of the reports because, hionestly, most folk can tell the videos are of normal sky traffic, and nothing is there to investigate. The FBI has more important things to do than chase down bogus youtube posts that are there as click bait.



No, this is paranoia talking. And a main reason there is a real psychological thing call mass hysteria. Here's a documented example:

Psychogenic epidemic - mass hysteria phenomena in Portugal - PMC

Mass hysteria also called mass psychogenic illness (MPI), defined as a social phenomenon, consists of collective anxiety due to a perceived threat and can culminate in a cascade of symptoms suggestive of organic disease without an identifiable ...

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Tell us about the serious investigation that you did and what kind of serious investigation it requires to recognize manned aircraft landing at the airport when they have been doing it daily for years/decades?

The FBI doesn't need to do a serious investigation to know this.
I don't need to do a serious investigation to know this.

If this is reported to me and I live there, it will take me 10 minutes to respond and say "Those are manned aircraft landing at the airport. I've been seeing this for years, I know when I see it, it's not mystery."

And the converse it true: if I look at the same scene, knowing what I know about "aircraft landing at the airport for years" if I look out there and it *doesnt* look like manned aircraft landing at the airport but something else, I'm going to know that, too. I'm going to know it right away that ain't airplanes landing at the airport, I know it when I see it and that ain't airplanes; something is not right. this is what happened when the authorities took a look and they said "We don't know what this is."

If I pull my VW bug into your driveway and you tell me you don't know what kind of car that is; fine but you can't later claim you know all about VW bug cars but you needed to look into it first and seriously investigate before you called it. You claim you knew it was a VW bug when it pulled into your driveway to cover your ignorance. I don't drive a VW bug.

Here's your reply: Well, the people were so hysterical when they reported the drones, they were so concerned, we didn't want to hurt their feelings or insult them by telling them they were seeing ghosts. People were so alarmed that we questioned ONLY for a minute if there *were* actually something bad going on so we didn't want to jump the gun but give it the proper attention that it deserved. We took their hallucinations seriously. We work at the FAA and we work on the military base in the tower and we allowed the hysterical public to convince us to investigate our own planes landing at our own airport. We knew we were landing planes but instead we told the public we're not sure and we'll take a look into it over the next 2 weeks. "Tell them it's Jupiter or Venus."

 

[Chip]

It isn't the ground they are looking at, it's all the videos. Who do you know that actually looks up from their cell phone?

This might be your problem right here. Too much screen time. It can mess with your brain. My vote is to go outside more.

 

[mavic3usa]

That's funny. So if someone tells me on Monday they saw a drone interfering with airport traffic over central park and I've hired an investigator the day I got the report, who hasn't verified the event nor found the drone and its owner the next few days; and Thursday I tell reporters "My investigator hasn't found anything." that is a problem for you?

No, it's a problem for me when the investigator knows I reported it on Monday and his investigation starts on Wednesday and Thursday" and he says he hasn't found anything for those 2 days. Now multiply this times weeks and this is what we have.

Those rogue drones or whatever they were....came and went. The window has closed. For example, issuing a TFR today is LATE and if that's part of the investigation, it is designed to fail. We know they didn't take it seriously at first; fine.

 

[MS Coast]

report to DHS but to state and local law enforcement who are overwhelmed and understaffed for such a crisis especially one created and stoked by deceptive federal actors pursuing secret agendas.

What? You, too? Secret malevolent government plots. State and local law enforcement overwhelmed. CRISIS!

 

[Zbip57]

No. I'm not motivated to convince you of anything, nor is it important to me in any way. You're asking me to make an effort for no reason that matters to me at all.

It was a simple question.

You found some reports to be more "credible" and "legitimate" than others. Yet you won't share those. I'm genuinely curious and trying to understand your position.

 

[MS Coast]

Remember back last year when some folks here were predicting a wave of assaults and robberies of drone pilots identified by their RID signals? Some were bragging about the bear spray, firearms, and body cams they'd tote around while flying.

Now some of the same folks are predicting physical and legislative horrors and imminent dangers from the lights in the sky. There are calls to blast them out of the sky and claims that they're foreign or interplanetary enemies.

But, so far, the number of crimes against drone pilots using RID stands at the same level as the number of injuries or instances of damage done by those lights in the sky.

ZERO Yes, 0.

 

[blabel75]

Why aren't people in Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and other big city busy airports not calling in fake drone sighting when planes from those areas line up in formation like they've done for years? Why didn't people in NYC airports report the same last year?

Why would the military and the FAA and the government and the FBI says "We have no idea what this is" when they should have said what you see which is "These are planes coming into and landing at the busy airport."

Because those groups triggered this event and stood back and watched the fear spread while giving it nudges here and there.

People from all over are posting videos online. However this hysteria started in the NJ area. Most people in the rest of the country aren't really out there looking (yet) but there are videos from other parts of the country and even the world. People are reporting it from NYC. For some reason it was picked up by the news this year and that fed the hysteria. It is strange how stuff can go viral these days.

The government has said that most of these reports are simply manned aircraft. You just don't see that reported in the news because it doesn't garner clicks.

 

[Zbip57]

Why aren't people in Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and other big city busy airports not calling in fake drone sightings [...]

What? Are you claiming these reports are coming exclusively from New Jersey?

Didn't you post this video only an hour and half before that? This video, from TEXAS?

Here's a clue: You won't be able to rewrite this, it's all documented.

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0:27 "A woman said there was a formation of six drones..."
0:35 "A homeowner reported seeing mystery drones..."
0:48 "Officers spotted the aircraft..."
"This is cellphone video they recorded..."

@mavic3usa, when YOU watch that cellphone video recorded by the officers, do YOU;

1. recognize those lights as the exact FAA-mandated lighting required for every normal airliner, or
2. see those lights and instantly identify that as one of them "mystery drones", or
3. would YOU [like Chief Chris Cook being interviewed] say, "We just don't know"?

 

[Chip]

What? You, too? Secret malevolent government plots. State and local law enforcement overwhelmed. CRISIS!

Yes me too. But you know why? I met this gal at a bar last week and she asked me why I was wearing blinders? I did not know what she meant. I FORGOT I HAD THEM ON. You best believe I was scared but she took her hand and gently removed the fabric while caressing my face. When it was over, I opened my eyes and I saw sky, and mountains, and birds and...well you get the idea.

 

[MS Coast]

Yes me too. But you know why? I met this gal at a bar last week and she asked me why I was wearing blinders? I did not know what she meant. I FORGOT I HAD THEM ON. You best believe I was scared but she took her hand and gently removed the fabric while caressing my face. When it was over, I opened my eyes and I saw sky, and mountains, and birds and...well you get the idea.


View attachment 179891

Ok. I'm convinced. Between that photo and your profile photo, I have to conclude that you have an affinity for strapping strange things to your head.

But secret malevolent government plots?

It's easy to cry, "Wolf!" Any support whatsoever for the claim?"

State and local law enforcement overwhelmed?

Again, easy to make the claim. Which state and local governments are overwhelmed? How many states? How many cities?

 

[Chip]

Remember back last year when some folks here were predicting a wave of assaults and robberies of drone pilots identified by their RID signals? Some were bragging about the bear spray, firearms, and body cams they'd tote around while flying.

Now some of the same folks are predicting physical and legislative horrors and imminent dangers from the lights in the sky. There are calls to blast them out of the sky and claims that they're foreign or interplanetary enemies.

But, so far, the number of crimes against drone pilots using RID stands at the same level as the number of injuries or instances of damage done by those lights in the sky.

ZERO Yes, 0.

Ok. I'm convinced. Between that photo and your profile photo, I have to conclude that you have an affinity for strapping strange things to your head.

But secret malevolent government plots?

It's easy to cry, "Wolf!" Any support whatsoever for the claim?"

State and local law enforcement overwhelmed?

Again, easy to make the claim. Which state and local governments are overwhelmed? How many states? How many cities?

Okay, great question. My understanding that state and local law enforcement in New Jersey is overwhelmed is based on broadcast interviews with state and local law enforcement, mayors and state legislators. They have been begging for federal resources and equipment and legal authority to counter drones since this started. I do not think this can be fairly debated given the breadth of the reporting. But it also does not matter how many cities or states have drone issues so long as a few important highly visible ones do. New Jersey experience alone is sufficient to justify sweeping national reform of drone laws in the eyes of majority of people. The issue of malevolence and whether the ends justify the means, well these are great questions aren't they?

 

[Droning on and on...]

It was a simple question.

You found some reports to be more "credible" and "legitimate" than others. Yet you won't share those. I'm genuinely curious and trying to understand your position.

As I don't copy, collect, and index everything I read, doing so would require an online search effort greater than I'm willing to expend.

I really mean no offense in stating the following: This is a relatively trivial, entertaining topic in an online drone forum; as such, in this narrow instance, I care not if you think I'm a hyperventilating loon. That's how important it is to me to substantiate any point or opinion I offer in this thread.

Hopefully that calibrates my willingness to satisfy your request. I respond to posts and offer my opinions in this thread as it interests me, but I'm not willing to spend any more time on it than that. I'm very comfortable with your skeptism.

YMMV

 

[mavic3usa]

What? Are you claiming these reports are coming exclusively from New Jersey?

Didn't you post this video only an hour and half before that? This video, from TEXAS?

This is what I didn't say: "Drone reports are coming exclusively from NJ." that would be a stupid statement.
Here's what I did say:

Why aren't people in Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and other big city busy airports not calling in fake drone sighting when planes from those areas line up in formation like they've done for years? Why didn't people in NYC airports report the same last year?

Ok I get it; you don't have an answer so you pretend like you didn't understand the question. You cannot claim NYC airports are the only airports in the country that cause nearby residents to become alarmed at the traffic and start report manned aircraft as drones because the airport is super busy. Not a single busy airport elsewhere in America have residents who live nearby have mistaken the landing aircraft for drones; that just isn't a thing. Does it happen? Sure. But that's not what is going on here. Don't you think "airport landing light syndrome" would affect at least one other busy airport somewhere else in the country?

... when YOU watch that cellphone video recorded by the officers, do YOU;

1. recognize those lights as the exact FAA-mandated lighting required for every normal airliner, or
2. see those lights and instantly identify that as one of them "mystery drones", or
3. would YOU [like Chief Chris Cook being interviewed] say, "We just don't know"?

It's not important what I would do. What is important with video clip and the point that I was trying to make is the police chief did not choose #1. Please tell me why not? The reason why he did not is because he has seen airplanes landing in his AO for years and he has seen a 1,000 but when he saw this one (1,001th) it didn't click for him.

You keep wanting to critique a video clip (which is why you ask me to comment on the video clip) but the important piece is what you see with your own eyes while on scene. The person who took that video also most likely saw it with their own eyes and therefore the reason why they hesitate on the video is because they couldn't confirm with their own eyes. Therefore it would be silly of me to watch a video clip and conclude it's a manned aircraft and then try to claim if I saw it with my own eyes, I would conclude the same. that's where you are getting caught up....trying to back into this. It's almost better off there is no video clip and therefore you can only go with what a person sees with their own eyes and even then (without a video clip), I bet you would still try to convince everyone you know what that person saw.

How about you show us a video clip of a drone in the distance? There isn't one because a clip of a drone in the distance is not a thing and will not be obvious to anyone. At night, that far away....there's never going to be a 50/50 collection of video clips. They will *all* look like manned aircraft on video. The only way to think it's a drone is to be there and see it with your own eyes and gather more info than a single video or photo can capture. Doesn't mean it's a drone but it means you'll do what this Chief did which is #3.

Authorities doing #3 early on hurts the country.

Let's me know when you are ready to move past the video clips; they're irrelevant at this point. Everyone has already agreed some of these are drones whether they are captured on video or in photos....or not. There were drones and apparently quite a few of them. When you are ready to talk about those, let me know. I know your obsessed with the amateur photos and the poor quality videos, etc but you really need to look past that because we are already beyond that and there's important things to discuss one you get onboard with the rest of us who already know there were drones flying around the NJ area recently (along with manned aircraft; they were not exclusively manned aircraft) that weren't there this summer, or last year, or whenever.

Sorry you won't be able to sweep this under the rug. Trust me, I wish they would drop this and forget the upcoming legislation but I'm trying not to get caught flatfooted like you will be when there is new drone legislation and you're still talking "What drones? Manned aircraft are landing at the airport and you want to put up a TFR or pass new no fly zones or hand over drone enforcement to police just because planes want to land at the local airport? Nobody saw any drones and I have a thousand pictures of airliners to prove it." That's a losing strategy my friend. Learn to read the room. They're coming for your drones....in a big way; bigger than the DJI ban. We were probably one step away from mass confiscation and we didn't even know it.

 

[eEridani]

The scale of this hysteria event:

ps: I post this article as a reference point prior to the current November on NJ wave: but folk worried about the US being overrun by drones should read it. It'll make you even more anxious.

Here's What NORAD's Commander Just Told Us About The Langley AFB Drone Incursions

December's rash of mysterious drone flights over Langley Air Force Base has changed how the U.S. plans to defend against such threats domestically.

www.twz.com

For the period between 2022 and October 2024:

The joint U.S.-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command officially reported in October 2024 that there had been around 600 unauthorized drone incursions over U.S. military sites since 2022.

So 600 idiots flew into restricted airspace in the two years prior to the NJ hysteria, about one a day. And so far officials have reported that of the appx five thousand reports of drone sightings they have investigated since early November, they have confirmed about 100 were actual drones, most flying legally by businesses, police, and military. This means if most of the 100 drones are not being flown illegally, and we say 25 are flying illegally, that is ... hmmm ... about one per day.

How is that any different than the prior two years? If we take the NE population of about 65 million, 1/5 the total US, and consider the density of military sites follows population density, I'd guestimate the NE is seeing about three times the rates of the past two years.

3x isn't exactly an overwhelming number, certainly not worth worry - there are more drones today and we now have RFID to help identify them. That said, investigating 5000 reports in a month that are mostly superfluous is overwhelming.

pps: I found this while looking for real numbers of sightings... contains mostly PIREPS.

https://www.faa.gov/uas/resources/public_records/uas_sightings_report