Holy ****…34% tariffs on imports from China

[msinger]

I'm certainly no expert on the dairy trade, but I question where you got the idea that Canada is somehow unfairly profiting from a trade imbalance, "like in the case of dairy products".

I realize my question might have been a bit unclear, so let me try to rephrase it.

If that Canadian tariff wasn't currently in place and dairy imports from the US rose to a level that would have triggered the tariff, what would that mean for Canadians? Would Canadian farmers potentially see reduced profits? Could it lead to job losses in the dairy industry? Would it make Canada more dependent on US dairy products?

I guess my bigger question is why does this Canadian tariff exist in the first place? You've mentioned that tariffs only hurt the country that imposes them, so is the Canadian government knowingly doing something that harms its own people?

To me, it seems this tariff is primarily intended to protect Canada. If that’s the case, I’m not sure we can assume that all US tariffs inherently harm the US or were deliberately enacted by its own government to do so.

 

[Zbip57]

In 2022 Canada imported $715,612,378 in dairy products from the USA.
In 2022 Canada exported $242,068,613 in dairy products to the USA.
www.progressivepublish.com/downloads/2023/general/2022-ca-stats-highres.pdf

Just for jollies, let's apply Trump's bizarre formula used to calculate his recently announced tariff rates.

Using his same formula, how much tariff should Canada be applying to dairy imports from the U.S.?

This was explained earlier in the video in post #50. Just scratch out "U.S." and replace with "Canada" in this formula.


In 2022, the U.S. exported $715.6B in dairy products to Canada, and imported only $242.0B from Canada. [edit: Ack, those numbers are only millions, not billions! But it doesn't alter the percentages.]

Using Trump's own formula, that means...

(715.6 - 242.0) / 242.0
= 473.6 / 242.0
= 195.7%

But then Trump divides that number in half, because he's being "kind". So, using Trump's own logic[?!?], Canada should be applying a tariff of:
195.7 / 2 = 97.85%

For simplicity, we'd just round that up to an even 100% tariff on all US dairy products imported into Canada.

Except, we don't!

Despite our published tariff rates on dairy imports, Canada has collected ZERO tariffs because the dairy product imports have never reached the quota limits above which those tariffs would apply.

{Edit: Those dairy import/exports are in millions of dollars, not billions!]

 

[msinger]

Just for jollies, let's apply Trump's bizarre formula used to calculate his recently announced tariff rates.

Using his same formula, how much tariff should Canada be applying to dairy imports from the U.S.?

Oh, so now we're back to talking about Trump again?

Could you please answer my question above without bringing up Trump?

 

[Zbip57]

Could you please answer my question above without bringing up Trump?

Hang on. I'm composing a reply momentarily...

 

[Zbip57]

I realize my question might have been a bit unclear, so let me try to rephrase it. [...] To me, it seems this tariff is primarily intended to protect Canada.

Those are all GREAT questions! Again, please watch the video in post #70 as that really does explain it best.

Yes, of course, our dairy tariffs and our supply management policies are designed to protect our own Cdn dairy industry and our own dairy farmers. I've explained that before, in post #74.

I also explained in post #31 how tariffs are used to protect your other existing domestic industries, like steel production.

The trade agreements between Canada/USA were negotiated and settled in the earlier NAFTA agreement, and by the current USMCA agreement (negotiated and signed by you-know-who). If any details of those treaties are in dispute, there are legal mechanisms by which those disputes can be resolved, and frequently have been resolved (including details concerning trade in dairy products).

As for your specific questions, [again I am not an expert]:

If that Canadian tariff wasn't currently in place and dairy imports from the US rose to a level that would have triggered the tariff, what would that mean for Canadians?

I don't know how that particular quota number was determined. It's like any set speed limit. If the limit is 60mph, it doesn't mean you're "safe" with no dangerous consequences if you cruise at 59.9mph, or that you're only going to suffer life threatening consequences at 60.1mph or more. It's just some arbitrary number triggering the threshold between whats considered acceptable versus being subject to penalties.

However that dairy quota number was arrived at, it's the negotiated and agreed threshold at which tariffs would apply.

Would Canadian farmers potentially see reduced profits? Could it lead to job losses in the dairy industry? Would it make Canada more dependent on US dairy products?

If everyone else is going 60mph, but some fool is doing 200mph, at some point that could result in an unacceptable danger to the public. Hence the need to set some arbitrary limit on speed.

So let's say we have a completely open market, and the USA finds some way [slave labour?] to produce dairy products at a quarter the price of what it costs Canadian farmers to produce the same items. Why should we keep paying Cdn farmers their exorbitant fees if we could buy the same stuff practically for free from the USA? Cdn farms would shut down completely and we'd just buy dairy products exclusively from the USA.

Canada could then impose a 400% tariff on dairy imports from the US. That would raise the cost for Cdn importers equivalent to what our domestic producers are charging. So now there's no longer any incentive to import. The imported stuff then costs the same as the domestic stuff, might as well continue buying from our own farmers. This way our farmers stay in business.

But it sounds stupid if we could be enjoying US dairy products at a quarter of the cost.

But dairy is far more complicated than in just that simplistic example. Again, it's explained the video I posted earlier.

We have different health regulations. Canadians actually care about whether or not our milk is polluted with artificial growth hormones, whereas Americans seem content to have Bobby Kennedy Jr heading their Dept of Health (Jesus wept).

You've mentioned that tariffs only hurt the country that imposes them, so is the Canadian government knowingly doing something that harms its own people?

Again, Canada is collecting ZERO tariffs on US dairy imports, as the imports from the US have not reached the quota levels at which those tariffs are triggered. So, no, we are not being hurt by those tariffs.

Are we being hurt by paying slightly higher prices for our domestic dairy products? [Are they actually higher?] If you conducted a poll amongst all Canadians, I think you'd find we're content with our current dairy prices and are ALL deeply grateful that we are not forced to rely exclusively on American suppliers.

I’m not sure we can assume that all US tariffs inherently harm the US or were deliberately enacted by its own government to do so.

Tariffs to protect existing industries make some sense, but only up to a point. If another country manages to produce an equivalent quality of steel for much less cost than your domestic steel, at which point does it eventually stop making sense to keep subsidizing your overly expensive steel factories?

America has [had] the strongest economy in the world. It was the first and fastest to recover from the world-wide supply chain disruptions of the Covid pandemic. Your fiscal problem can be boiled down to the simple fact that Americans buy more stuff from foreign countries than they sell to those countries. You have an ongoing and ever-increasing trade deficit.

Your administration decided to impose exorbitant import tariffs on everything being imported into your country from anywhere in the world [even penguin poop]. I think you'll find a lot of your compatriots are going to wonder why any of that makes any sense.

Reminder: Unless you plan on importing exclusively from Hawaii, how does it make sense to impose an import tax on bananas or coffee beans???

 

[Dronecation]

I realize my question might have been a bit unclear, so let me try to rephrase it.

If that Canadian tariff wasn't currently in place and dairy imports from the US rose to a level that would have triggered the tariff, what would that mean for Canadians? Would Canadian farmers potentially see reduced profits? Could it lead to job losses in the dairy industry? Would it make Canada more dependent on US dairy products?

I guess my bigger question is why does this Canadian tariff exist in the first place? You've mentioned that tariffs only hurt the country that imposes them, so is the Canadian government knowingly doing something that harms its own people?

To me, it seems this tariff is primarily intended to protect Canada. If that’s the case, I’m not sure we can assume that all US tariffs inherently harm the US or were deliberately enacted by its own government to do so.

Precisely!

 

[Bob in Savannah]

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at minute 2:20 the hammer hits.

 

[Zbip57]

Americans buy more stuff from foreign countries than they sell to those countries. You have an ongoing and ever-increasing trade deficit.

According to your US Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2024 Canada bought $349.4 billion of stuff from the US, whereas you bought $412.7 billion from Canada.

In a total trade of $762.1 billion between our two countries, the US had a deficit of only $63.3 billion. [Do I even need to mention, that figure doesn't come anywhere close to the fictitious $200 billion which Trump repeatedly claims to be "subsidizing" Canada by.] Fact-checking, eh?

ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada

Not counting the large amounts of heavy crude oil you buy from Canada, the US actually enjoys a significant trade surplus with Canada. We buy way more "stuff" from America than you do from Canada.

If we stopped selling you our oil for only about one month, that would easily erase your trade deficit with Canada.

 

[Starz]

justify this nonsensical destruction

Simple. His way or the highway.
1386 days left, then he’s gone.

 

[Zbip57]

According to your US Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2024 Canada bought $349.4 billion of stuff from the US, whereas you bought $412.7 billion from Canada.
ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada

I forgot to mention, in 2022, $715 million dollars of dairy products are bought by Canada from the USA, and only $242 million is bought by the USA from Canada.

You can see that the dairy trade is merely a tiny drop in the bucket compared to the billions in total trade between our two countries.

And yet, Trump keeps harping on about how Canada is somehow ripping you off with 400% tariffs on dairy imports.

It's total fiction.

 

[MS Coast]

Something else to consider is that the president's tariffs program considers only goods and ignores services. A major part of the US GDP is made up of services. So the goods-only view of trade balance exaggerates the actual economic balance between nations. In other words, things are not nearly so dire as claimed, even if you accept the questionable numbers being bandied about.

 

[msinger]

So let's say we have a completely open market, and the USA finds some way [slave labour?] to produce dairy products at a quarter the price of what it costs Canadian farmers to produce the same items. Why should we keep paying Cdn farmers their exorbitant fees if we could buy the same stuff practically for free from the USA? Cdn farms would shut down completely and we'd just buy dairy products exclusively from the USA.

Great example! It actually sounds like you're making the case that Canada put these tariffs in place to protect its people, not to harm them. The dairy industry is a good example of how tariffs can support a country by keeping local farms alive and food production stable.

And as you mentioned, these tariffs aren't active all the time. They're more like a tool in the toolbox, ready to be used when needed. If Canada faces a tough spot, tariffs can help get things back on track. Then once the situation improves, they can be rolled back and set aside until needed again.

Your administration decided to impose exorbitant import tariffs on everything being imported into your country from anywhere in the world [even penguin poop].

Indeed! But, for what purpose? That's the real mystery here. And is this a tool they're using to fix a temporary problem or one that will be in place until the end of time? I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens next.

 

[Zbip57]

It actually sounds like you're making the case that Canada put these tariffs in place to protect its people, not to harm them.

Used properly, tariffs are not intended to harm your own citizens. The intent is to discourage your citizens from buying foreign products, and instead encourage them to purchase homegrown products to support your own industries.

The question is, why are people choosing to buy those foreign products in the first place when a similar product is already available at home? It's because the products from that foreign country are more attractive to your consumers, because of better quality or better affordability or whatever.

Why do so many people choose and prefer to buy Chinese DJI products over American Skydio products?

Skydio simply doesn't provide the same options, their drones cost way too much, and Skydio doesn't even offer consumer level products any more. So the government can step in to "cure" this trade imbalance and "protect" its domestic industry by fabricating some sort of national security risk of Chinese drones operating within your territory. Or they can slap a huge new tariff on all Chinese products so that the purchase of a DJI drone now costs you more than a Skydio drone, or whatever...

Does that end up "harming" US citizens? It surely does if your business depends on buying and operating a fleet of capable affordable drones.

The dairy industry is a good example of how tariffs can support a country by keeping local farms alive and food production stable.

The dairy industry is a good example only because the tariff terms are consistent and understood by everyone involved. They were negotiated and agreed upon under the previous NAFTA treaty, and under the current USMCA treaty, both of which were ratified and signed by the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

If anyone feels cheated by the agreed upon terms, there are legal procedures and international courts available for dispute resolution.

And as you mentioned, these tariffs aren't active all the time.

In the case of our Cdn dairy tariffs, they've never been activated. The agreed upon treaty terms certainly do exist, but the import quota has never been reached to trigger the activation of those dairy tariffs.

The key is knowing and respecting the consistent terms of our mutual treaty agreements.

Our US/Mexico/Canada automotive industry DEPENDS on a stable and consistent system of agreements, and based on those agreements it has evolved to profit each of our countries. Vehicle components now come from all over the place in Mexico, USA, and Canada, crossing back and forth over our borders many, many, times as those components are combined into larger assemblies before eventual installation into the finished automobile.

Trump unilaterally announced, totally out of the blue, that the USMCA treaty [which he himself negotiated and signed in his first term] is now void and that he would be imposing 25% tariffs on everything imported into the USA from Canada or Mexico, thereby causing an immediate stock market meltdown. Then he postponed those tariffs for a month, giving everyone a moment to try to figure out what the heck just happened. Then he reapplied those tariffs, triggering another meltdown, and postponed again only on certain items, then reapplied brand new 10% and up to totally-crazy-level tariffs on every country in the world [curiously excluding Russia and North Korea].

Now nobody knows what's going on anymore, or what the purpose of this nonsense actually is. There is no way to untangle our respective auto industry committments to separate out what level of tariffs apply to each border crossing of car components. Meanwhile your retirement investments have gone into the toilet, your economy is crashing, every country that once considered you an ally now looks at you with suspicion as though you've gone totally bonkers mad, and we thank our lucky stars that we Canadians still have a stable domestic dairy and poultry industry of our own that's independent and not reliant on supplies from the USA which can be turned off at any time at the whim of an unstable you-know-who.

 

[msinger]

Meanwhile your retirement investments have gone into the toilet, your economy is crashing, every country that once considered you an ally now looks at you with suspicion as though you've gone totally bonkers mad

Yes, Chicken Little, the sky really is falling!

an unstable you-know-who

He’s really made himself at home in your head. No rent, no utilities, huh?

 

[Zbip57]

He’s really made himself at home in your head.

He certainly has.

Remember, all during his election campaign he kept telling us how he considers "tariff" to be the most beautiful word in the dictionary. So it's no surprise that he's now applying tariffs against every other country.

Furthermore, he hasn't stopped threatening to annex Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal. Just like his supposed "joking" about his stupid tariffs, his not-so-funny threats to make Canada your 51st state are being taken dead-seriously here.

I have many American friends, many very dear friends, and have travelled extensively throughout your beautiful country. I'm not anti-American. But there's something seriously wrong and frightening with your current leader.

 

[Bad Santa]

Now for the REAL Story

The Heard Island and McDonald Island are the Australian islands located near Antarctica. While the world laughs at Trump for imposing a tariff on islands whose only inhabitants are penguins. But here's the truth of the matter:

Panax notoginseng, commonly referred to as Chinese ginseng is grown only in China and can only be fertilized with poop from the Adélie penguin. This species of penguin widely populates McDonald Island. The Chinese harvest over 5,000 kilograms every year from McDonald Island thus allowing them to be the sole exporter of of Panax notoginseng.

Bottom line, no penguin poop = no Chinese ginseng.

Who said trump is an idiot??

ME!
And it's not even political. I've been aware of it for a couple decades.

 

[SkyeHigh]

Well said. And to add a little context from our part of the world. Australia sells beef to the US because they want it. No one is dumping it on America. It sells because there is a demand for it, it is a very lean meat and is added to every McDonalds beef burger - the very burgers that Mr Trump enjoys. The beef largely produced in the US has a higher fat content due in part to the breed and the feed used. Australian beef for export is produced in a harsh and pollutant free environment. They don’t enjoy the fresh green grass and feed additives common in countries with a cooler environment.

So why does Australia not import beef from the US? Several reasons, we don’t need it - we produce enough for our small population. We have bio-protections in place to ensure no harmful diseases or virus that can impact livestock. We have a very sensitive environment that is unique in the world and do whatever is required to protect it. We do not import meat products from any country that has either currently or in the past experienced the devastating effects of BSE. The remoteness of our beef producing farms often provide the only form of employment for the small local populations. If a disease did make its way into the country the effects would be devastating. It’s bad enough losing tens of thousands of cattle and sheep during the all too often massive floods we live with here.

What Australia does excel at is extracting minerals. It has the largest deposits of high grade Iron ore of any country along with some of the largest Aluminium and Lithium reserves. Together, along with many other minerals, they supply the largest form of income for the country and the largest export market. Unlike the US administrations’ belief that Australia dumps our metals it, we can produce the ore cheaper than most other countries and as it has such high mineral content it costs less to transport in its raw form.

It’s a global market. Businesses buy their raw materials and products from countries with sufficient, high quality and reliable supply chains.

Over the past ten years the exchange rate for the Australian dollar has tanked making Australian supplied products even better value for the US. Is Australia dumping minerals on the US? On the contrary Australia is being taken advantage of if we were to use Mr Trumps choice of wording.

 

[Split-Infinitive]

While that 250% figure is actually true, that tariff rate only applies after a certain quota is exceeded. However, that quota has never been reached.

So, despite what Trump keeps saying, there have been ZERO tariffs charged on the US dairy products imported into Canada.

Here is a very good explanation of how it actually works.

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Exactly the same with Japan and rice. Trump ignored that fact too.

 

[JAW]

Well said. And to add a little context from our part of the world. Australia sells beef to the US because they want it. No one is dumping it on America. It sells because there is a demand for it, it is a very lean meat and is added to every McDonalds beef burger - the very burgers that Mr Trump enjoys. The beef largely produced in the US has a higher fat content due in part to the breed and the feed used. Australian beef for export is produced in a harsh and pollutant free environment. They don’t enjoy the fresh green grass and feed additives common in countries with a cooler environment.

So why does Australia not import beef from the US? Several reasons, we don’t need it - we produce enough for our small population. We have bio-protections in place to ensure no harmful diseases or virus that can impact livestock. We have a very sensitive environment that is unique in the world and do whatever is required to protect it. We do not import meat products from any country that has either currently or in the past experienced the devastating effects of BSE. The remoteness of our beef producing farms often provide the only form of employment for the small local populations. If a disease did make its way into the country the effects would be devastating. It’s bad enough losing tens of thousands of cattle and sheep during the all too often massive floods we live with here.

What Australia does excel at is extracting minerals. It has the largest deposits of high grade Iron ore of any country along with some of the largest Aluminium and Lithium reserves. Together, along with many other minerals, they supply the largest form of income for the country and the largest export market. Unlike the US administrations’ belief that Australia dumps our metals it, we can produce the ore cheaper than most other countries and as it has such high mineral content it costs less to transport in its raw form.

It’s a global market. Businesses buy their raw materials and products from countries with sufficient, high quality and reliable supply chains.

Over the past ten years the exchange rate for the Australian dollar has tanked making Australian supplied products even better value for the US. Is Australia dumping minerals on the US? On the contrary Australia is being taken advantage of if we were to use Mr Trumps choice of wording.

VERY well said.

 

[Felix le Chat]

Used properly, tariffs are not intended to harm your own citizens. The intent is to discourage your citizens from buying foreign products, and instead encourage them to purchase homegrown products to support your own industries.

The question is, why are people choosing to buy those foreign products in the first place when a similar product is already available at home? It's because the products from that foreign country are more attractive to your consumers, because of better quality or better affordability or whatever.

Why do so many people choose and prefer to buy Chinese DJI products over American Skydio products?

Skydio simply doesn't provide the same options, their drones cost way too much, and Skydio doesn't even offer consumer level products any more. So the government can step in to "cure" this trade imbalance and "protect" its domestic industry by fabricating some sort of national security risk of Chinese drones operating within your territory. Or they can slap a huge new tariff on all Chinese products so that the purchase of a DJI drone now costs you more than a Skydio drone, or whatever...

Does that end up "harming" US citizens? It surely does if your business depends on buying and operating a fleet of capable affordable drones.


The dairy industry is a good example only because the tariff terms are consistent and understood by everyone involved. They were negotiated and agreed upon under the previous NAFTA treaty, and under the current USMCA treaty, both of which were ratified and signed by the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

If anyone feels cheated by the agreed upon terms, there are legal procedures and international courts available for dispute resolution.


In the case of our Cdn dairy tariffs, they've never been activated. The agreed upon treaty terms certainly do exist, but the import quota has never been reached to trigger the activation of those dairy tariffs.

The key is knowing and respecting the consistent terms of our mutual treaty agreements.

Our US/Mexico/Canada automotive industry DEPENDS on a stable and consistent system of agreements, and based on those agreements it has evolved to profit each of our countries. Vehicle components now come from all over the place in Mexico, USA, and Canada, crossing back and forth over our borders many, many, times as those components are combined into larger assemblies before eventual installation into the finished automobile.

Trump unilaterally announced, totally out of the blue, that the USMCA treaty [which he himself negotiated and signed in his first term] is now void and that he would be imposing 25% tariffs on everything imported into the USA from Canada or Mexico, thereby causing an immediate stock market meltdown. Then he postponed those tariffs for a month, giving everyone a moment to try to figure out what the heck just happened. Then he reapplied those tariffs, triggering another meltdown, and postponed again only on certain items, then reapplied brand new 10% and up to totally-crazy-level tariffs on every country in the world [curiously excluding Russia and North Korea].

Now nobody knows what's going on anymore, or what the purpose of this nonsense actually is. There is no way to untangle our respective auto industry committments to separate out what level of tariffs apply to each border crossing of car components. Meanwhile your retirement investments have gone into the toilet, your economy is crashing, every country that once considered you an ally now looks at you with suspicion as though you've gone totally bonkers mad, and we thank our lucky stars that we Canadians still have a stable domestic dairy and poultry industry of our own that's independent and not reliant on supplies from the USA which can be turned off at any time at the whim of an unstable you-know-who.

Well articulated and well thought out.